05/05/2026
THE AFL HAS A MODEL PROBLEM — AND IT’S COSTING THE GAME
Over the past week we’ve seen a lot of discussion around participation, development and the state of the game.
What’s clear is this.
The issue isn’t just numbers.
It’s the model.
And more importantly…
What the game is being driven by.
REVENUE MODEL VS WHOLE OF GAME MODEL
Right now the AFL isn’t operating with a whole of game mindset.
It’s operating with a revenue mindset.
Broadcast rights
Expansion markets
Commercial growth
That’s the lens decisions are being made through.
You only have to listen to what Luke Beveridge said publicly this week to understand where things are at.
The AFL was once the custodian of the game.
Now it feels like the focus has shifted to:
How do we maximise revenue?
And when that happens…
The base gets neglected.
THE GAME IS STUCK BETWEEN SYSTEMS
Right now the AFL is trying to run a hybrid system.
Part American draft model
Part European academy model
Part private school pipeline
And it’s not executing any of them properly.
The American model works because of scale.
We don’t have that.
Yet we’re trying to draft from a pool that is getting smaller, not bigger.
WE ALREADY HAVE AN “ACADEMY SYSTEM” — IT’S JUST NOT OPEN TO ALL
Private schools are effectively acting as elite academies.
They have the coaching
The facilities
The programs
Meanwhile, community clubs are left trying to develop kids with limited support.
So what we’ve created is:
The haves
And the have nots
And that gap is growing.
THE PIPELINE IS NARROWING THE GAME, NOT GROWING IT
We’ve become obsessed with identifying talent.
But not developing enough of it.
A small group gets pushed into pathways early.
The rest?
They fall away.
And those are the players clubs rely on to survive.
AND NOW THE SYSTEM IS WORKING AGAINST ITSELF
Recent changes to the draft system say it all.
Clubs in NSW and QLD have invested heavily in academies.
They’ve done the hard work.
They’ve introduced kids to the game in rugby league and soccer heartland.
They’ve taught them how to play.
Now the reward for that investment is being reduced.
You can’t ask clubs to build talent…
Then punish them for finding it.
WHERE IT SHOWS UP — THE SCOREBOARD
If you want to see where this all lands…
Look at the margins.
Across junior and senior competitions in regions like Gippsland, Riverina and suburban leagues:
Blowouts are becoming the norm
Teams can’t field sides
Competitions are stretched
Games where one side kicks 100 and the other kicks 3 are not development.
They’re not participation.
They’re exit signs.
You can call it participation all you like…
But if a kid is standing in a forward pocket watching the opposition dominate all day, they’re not learning and they’re not coming back.
Competitiveness matters.
Not for premierships.
For retention.
THIS ISN’T ABOUT TAKING OVER OTHER SPORTS
Footy doesn’t need to beat rugby league or soccer.
That’s not the point.
The point is simple.
If a kid chooses footy, can they:
Learn the game
Improve
Feel competent
Stay involved
Right now, too many can’t.
THE REAL ISSUE — DEVELOPMENT
Across the board:
Kids aren’t being taught properly
Coaches aren’t being supported
Development is inconsistent
And it doesn’t matter where you are.
Even the kids in elite pathways aren’t consistently being developed to the level they should be.
That’s the concern.
WHAT SHOULD IT LOOK LIKE?
If the AFL is serious, it needs to shift focus.
Not just talent ID.
Actual development.
That means:
Smaller sided games
More touches
Clear coaching frameworks
Investment in coach education
Open pathways
Let clubs develop players.
Not just identify them.
THE REALITY
We can talk about demographics
Cost of living
Competing sports
All valid.
But they make this more important, not less.
If the pool is smaller…
You can’t afford to lose the players you already have.
FINAL WORD
The AFL has lost its purpose as custodian of the game.
It’s no longer asking:
What’s best for football?
It’s asking:
What grows revenue?
And that’s the shift.
Right now we’re trying to draft talent we haven’t properly developed.
And the scoreboard is showing us exactly where that leads.
Fix that…
Or the game keeps drifting further away from its foundations.
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