Angel Montesclaros

34 years 🎂
Now behind the wheels
A decade in forex
Scaling up in prop trading
— 2026

Happy Valentine’s Day everyone! May your days be filled with warmth and laughter, surrounded by people who truly love you ♥️♥️♥️

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Goodbye for now, RoboAcademy & RoboForex 💙

As I step away from my role as a trading coach, I just want to say thank you for the trust, the support, and the opportunity to be part of such an inspiring journey. Coaching and learning alongside so many passionate people has been truly meaningful.

This time, I’ll be focusing more on my own trading journey and personal growth. I’m excited for what’s ahead—and I’ll be announcing some good news very soon.

Grateful for everything, and wishing the community continued success. Until we meet again

No Major Data Today as Investors Eye FOMC Decision

Global markets are starting the day with politics firmly in the driver’s seat, as there are no meaningful releases on the economic calendar to give traders fresh data to react to. With the data slate quiet, attention has shifted almost entirely to political signals, trade relationships, and central bank expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for tomorrow at 3am. No change in monetary policy is expected, but positioning is cautious as markets wait for guidance on rates, inflation risks, and how policymakers are interpreting recent global developments.

Currency markets are being shaped by comments from President Trump, who once again signaled comfort with volatility in the US dollar. Trump said he can have the dollar up or down like a yo-yo and insisted that the value of the dollar is great and doing well. He also repeated claims that China and Japan have long wanted to devalue their currencies, while making it clear that he is not concerned about the recent decline in the dollar. For investors, these remarks reinforce the idea that the White House is not prioritizing a strong dollar policy, which keeps currency markets sensitive to political messaging rather than traditional fundamentals.

Trade developments are also drawing heavy attention after the European Union and India confirmed a historic free trade agreement that took almost two decades to finalize. The deal will see tariffs gradually cut to zero on the majority of goods traded between the two sides, with some key products and sectors excluded. European Commission President von der Leyen and Indian Prime Minister Modi both described the agreement as a landmark moment, with von der Leyen calling it the mother of all deals and emphasizing its role in strengthening strategic ties between Europe and India.

While President Trump has not yet commented publicly on the EU India deal, officials in Washington have already expressed frustration. Treasury Secretary Bessent criticized Europe for moving forward with India while the US has imposed tariffs of 25% on India over its purchases of Russian oil. He pointed out that the Europeans signed a trade deal with India despite US pressure, highlighting growing trans Atlantic tensions over trade strategy. At the same time, India’s minister of petroleum and natural gas, Puri, played down the risk of fallout, saying he expects the US India relationship to remain positive and that a trade deal between the two countries could still be completed. He stressed that India supports the multilateral trading system and urged observers to stay calm amid shifting global trade dynamics.

The EU-India agreement reflects a broader effort by both sides to hedge against unpredictable US trade policy and recurring tariff threats. The deal is one of the best available options for both economies, especially as the US and China remain relatively closed when it comes to new market openings. European trade ministers are becoming accustomed to frequent tariff threats from Washington, while India has been unable so far to secure a comparable agreement with the United States.

There is also an underlying geopolitical dimension. European officials are keenly aware of the need to balance economic independence with maintaining strong ties to Washington, especially as questions linger over US commitment to its allies. McAllister, chair of the European Parliament’s foreign affairs committee, said Europe needs to become more sovereign and economically competitive, while still preserving a close trans-Atlantic relationship based on mutual respect and trust.

With no major data releases today, markets are left to digest these political signals and prepare for the FOMC meeting. While no policy change is expected, traders will be watching closely for any shift in tone that could affect currencies, equities, and bonds. Until then, market direction is likely to be driven less by numbers and more by headlines coming out of Washington, Brussels, and New Delhi, keeping politics firmly at the center of the global market narrative.

Investors Watch Household Confidence Amid Trade Tensions and Shutdown Risk

Global markets are trading with attention on US households as the Conference Board’s consumer confidence data is scheduled for release tonight. Over the past six months, confidence has been soft, with the index falling from 94.6 in October to 89.1 in December, while the University of Michigan sentiment gauge remained in the mid fifties, showing ongoing caution about jobs, inflation, and the economic outlook. Investors are watching closely to see if tonight’s reading shows any improvement that could signal stronger spending or if households remain cautious, adding another layer to existing political and trade uncertainties.

Trade developments continue to draw attention in North America. Canadian Prime Minister Carney said the country is actively seeking new trade partners to reduce dependence on the United States and confirmed that the upcoming USMCA review will be robust. He also ruled out a snap election, helping reduce immediate political risk for investors watching North American trade ties. Meanwhile, US trade rhetoric remains active, with President Trump increasing tariffs on South Korean autos, lumber, pharmaceuticals, and other goods from 15% to 25% after South Korea’s legislature failed to approve a previously agreed trade deal. This move reinforces the idea that trade policy can shift quickly and affect global supply chains, even when broader growth data is stable.

Domestic politics in the US also weigh on markets, with another partial government shutdown possible if funding is not approved by Friday at midnight. Funding for the Department of Commerce has already been secured, meaning key releases such as gross domestic product and the personal consumption expenditures price index should continue, but the Department of Labor’s funding is still in question. That raises the potential for delays in the monthly jobs report and the consumer price index, both closely watched by markets for clues on Federal Reserve policy. Other agencies tied to airport operations, including the TSA and FAA, could see operational disruption, while programs like SNAP and WIC remain funded through the fiscal year.

Taken together, markets are navigating a mix of household sentiment, trade policy, and domestic political risk. Tonight’s US consumer confidence reading will be a key focus for investors, providing insight into whether households are ready to spend more in 2026 or continue to approach the year cautiously. Until there is clarity on consumer sentiment, trade agreements, and government funding, markets are likely to remain sensitive to headlines and cautious in positioning.

Durable Goods Report Takes Center Stage in a Crucial Global Data Week

Today’s durable goods report matters more than usual because it will land at a time when politics, central bank credibility, and growth expectations are all colliding. After several months of sharp swings driven largely by aircraft orders, investors will be watching whether the headline number reflects a genuine improvement in underlying manufacturing demand or simply another transportation driven bounce. A solid increase in total orders would help confirm that October’s decline was more noise than signal, while a weak or negative reading would reinforce concerns that higher interest rates and global uncertainty are starting to bite into business spending.

A particularly important focus will be orders excluding transportation. This core measure is widely viewed as a better guide to real manufacturing momentum because it strips out large and irregular aircraft bookings. If non transportation orders continue to grow steadily, it would suggest that factories remain busy and that US growth is still resilient despite political stress and tighter financial conditions. A slowdown here would raise questions about how long the economy can sustain the strong pace implied by recent GDP tracking estimates.

Markets will also be watching capital goods orders excluding defense and aircraft, which serve as a proxy for business investment. Strength in this category would support the view that companies are still willing to invest in equipment and technology, while weakness would signal caution ahead of an election year and rising policy uncertainty. This component feeds directly into GDP calculations, so any surprise could shift expectations for Q4 growth.
The durable goods report also arrives just ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, which adds to its importance. While no policy change is expected, stronger than expected orders could reinforce the Fed’s argument for patience on rate cuts, especially with growth still running hot. On the other hand, softer data would strengthen the case that restrictive policy is finally slowing demand, even if inflation remains sticky.

Beyond the US durable goods report, global context will shape how markets digest the data this week. In Canada, attention will be on the Bank of Canada meeting and upcoming inflation and trade figures. Even though no rate move is expected, the tone matters. If Canadian data remain soft while US manufacturing shows resilience, it could widen the perceived growth gap between the two economies and weigh further on the loonie. Canada’s trade numbers are also important because recent deficits reflect shifting export patterns and vulnerability to US trade policy, which can amplify reactions to US economic surprises like durable goods orders.

Japan remains a key source of volatility. Markets will be watching Tokyo inflation data, along with industrial production and retail sales, to gauge whether domestic price pressures are cooling fast enough to justify the Bank of Japan’s very slow approach to policy normalization. Any sign that inflation is stabilizing near 2 % without wage growth accelerating would keep pressure on the yen. That matters for US data because strong US orders paired with weak Japanese data tend to reinforce capital flows into the dollar, unless intervention risk dominates sentiment.

In Australia, the focus will be on Q4 inflation and credit growth. Australia is one of the few major economies where markets are actively discussing the possibility of a rate hike later this year. If inflation prints hot while US durable goods show strength, it would reinforce the idea that global demand for industrial goods remains firm. That combination tends to support commodity linked currencies and metals prices, which feed back into expectations for US manufacturing exports.

For the euro area, preliminary Q4 GDP and unemployment data will frame how investors interpret US resilience versus European stagnation or recovery. If euro area growth surprises to the upside while US durable goods rebound, it would soften the divergence narrative that has weighed on the euro. If Europe disappoints, strong US orders would underline the imbalance and keep capital flowing toward US assets despite political noise.

In the UK, consumer credit and mortgage lending will be watched mainly for what they imply about domestic demand after stronger than expected GDP. If UK data remain firm, markets may further push back expectations for Bank of England rate cuts. In that case, US durable goods strength would be viewed as part of a broader picture of developed economies proving more resilient than feared, rather than a purely US specific story.

China remains a critical background driver. Industrial profits and PMI data will help determine whether recent stabilization efforts are gaining traction. If Chinese manufacturing sentiment improves at the same time US durable goods orders rise, it would support the view that global manufacturing is finding a floor. Weak Chinese data, on the other hand, would raise concerns that US strength is increasingly domestic and potentially fragile if global demand does not follow.

Taken together, tonight’s US durable goods report does not stand alone. Its market impact will depend on whether it aligns with or contradicts signals coming from other major economies. The bigger question for investors is whether global manufacturing momentum is stabilizing together, or whether the US is increasingly an outlier in a more uncertain global landscape.

US Dollar Slides as Headline Risk Overshadows Strong Growth

It is another day focused on politics rather than pure economics, with the US dollar trading unevenly as investors digest a dense mix of geopolitical headlines, trade threats, and shifting expectations around US monetary leadership. The dominant theme is uncertainty, and that uncertainty is keeping foreign exchange markets cautious rather than directional.

European assets are under renewed pressure after Ukraine President Zelenskyy delivered unusually blunt criticism of Europe at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Zelenskyy argued that Europe still lacks real political power and continues to wait for direction from Washington rather than acting as a unified force. His remarks came against the backdrop of ongoing war with Russia and fresh concerns that US attention may shift elsewhere. For currency markets, this reinforces the perception that Europe remains structurally divided on defense and foreign policy, which tends to cap upside in the euro during periods of global stress. Zelenskyy also confirmed upcoming trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US in the United Arab Emirates, introducing cautious hope of diplomacy but no immediate relief for risk sentiment.

The situation around Greenland added another layer of tension. President Trump reiterated that the US will work with NATO on Greenland security and suggested there are positive outcomes for Europe within the proposed framework. However, criticism from Zelenskyy over minimal European troop commitments highlights broader doubts about Europe's ability to project power. This keeps the euro and Scandinavian currencies sensitive to headlines rather than fundamentals, while the dollar continues to benefit from its role as the primary safe haven.

In the US, political risk is increasingly intersecting with the financial system. Trump has filed a $5M lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase and CEO Dimon over alleged political debanking following the January 6 protest period. JPMorgan denies the allegations and says account closures were driven by regulatory expectations rather than politics. The case has revived debate over access to banking services and follows a recent executive order aimed at preventing banks from denying services based on political or religious views. While this issue does not directly move currencies, it adds to broader concerns about institutional stability and regulatory risk, factors that typically support the dollar during periods of uncertainty.

Trade policy rhetoric is also back in focus. Trump said a 25% tariff on anyone dealing with Iran will take effect very soon, while also stating he would prefer to avoid escalation with Iran despite sending a large force toward the region. This mix of pressure and restraint has kept oil prices sensitive and has supported the dollar against energy importing currencies, while limiting gains in risk sensitive currencies tied to global growth.

On the monetary policy front, attention is turning toward the Federal Reserve leadership transition. Trump confirmed he will announce his pick for Fed chair soon, and markets are actively pricing the outcome. BlackRock fixed income chief Rieder has seen his odds rise sharply after Trump called him very impressive, while former Fed Governor Warsh remains the frontrunner despite losing some momentum.

Economic data in the background remains solid. The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised third quarter US GDP growth slightly higher to a 4.4% annualized pace, the fastest in two years, supported by stronger exports and investment. Consumer spending was revised marginally lower but remains a key contributor to growth. Inflation measures such as PCE and core PCE for that quarter were unchanged, reinforcing the view that growth has remained strong without a renewed inflation surge. Mortgage rates recently hit a three year low, adding to the narrative that financial conditions are easing even as the Federal Reserve maintains a restrictive stance.

Overall, the forex market is trading a political risk premium rather than reacting to single data points. The dollar has slipped this week as investors focus on rising political uncertainty, shifting trade policy signals, and questions surrounding future Fed leadership, despite continued evidence of solid US economic growth. As the dollar has softened, the euro has gained ground, supported more by dollar weakness than by a decisive improvement in Europe fundamentals. Even so, longer term questions around Europe's strategic direction and defense coordination remain in the background and limit enthusiasm. Until there is clearer guidance on US trade policy, Fed leadership, and geopolitical negotiations, currency markets are likely to remain volatile but largely range bound, with headlines continuing to drive short term moves more than traditional economic releases.

Economic calendar 2025: financial news and events - RoboForex See market events 2025 by date and importance - filter to match your schedule. Track global releases, speeches and indicators by country and impact to plan your day.

Merry Christmas from our little family 👩🧑🐶
So grateful for love, laughter, and the blessings that make this season extra special. ✨🎄