Rob’s Ruminations on Tennessee Sports

Could Tennessee still Make the Playoffs?

Being ranked 23rd you would think it unlikely for Tennessee to make the playoffs. But if you look at the ESPN predictor maybe it isn’t as impossible as it seems.

Teams directly ahead of us that are predicted to lose a game and get the 3rd loss are USC, Michigan, Virginia, Louisville, Iowa and then there is Pitt expected to lose all three remaining and go 7-5. Would any of these go over a 3 loss Tennessee?

Then there is the SEC. Vandy is expected to go 10-2 while Oklahoma and Texas are expected to go 9-3. Well, this is all moot if Vandy is 10-2. If UT beats Vandy they are 9-3. If Texas loses to A&M and Oklahoma loses to LSU or Mizzou (all have about a 40% chance gof happening per ESPN) then they will both end up 8-4. Would think Tennessee goes over all of these.

The Big 12 could be a problem as Texas Tech looks to be in. But what if they lose to the winner of BYU and Cincinnati n the Championship game?

The ACC is also a mess. Not sure who gets into the Championship game between, Duke, SMU and Georgia Tech, one would assume the ACC only gets one team but a 10-2 Miami or 10-2 Georgia Tech would be considered.

Teams that are in (unless they collapse). Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss and Oregon. Add in Big 12 champ (pull hard for this to be Texas Tech), ACC champ Pull for Georgia Tech) and highest ranked group of 5.

That leaves the last 2 at large bids to come from this list Notre Dame (10-2), Utah (10-2), Miami (10-2) a 10-2 Georgia Tech if they are not in the ACC championship game, a 11-2 BYU if they lose the championship game or end up 10-2 after a loss to Cincinnati, Texas Tech if they lose the Big 12 championship or a 9-3 Tennessee that has just knocked Vandy out of the playoffs.

Notre Dame will of course go but the committee could very easily pick a 3 loss SEC team over a 2 loss Big 12 or ACC team.

So the two big games with the 4 biggest teams (Ohio State, Texas, Clemson and LSU) netted a total of 48 points or an average of 12.

Wow

SEC Predictions 2025

I haven’t posted anything for a while. I figure predicting the SEC football records would be a place to start. Looks like 4 playoff teams and three more that if they flip a loss could make i.

Georgia – 12-0. Really think this may be the worst undefeated team in the last several years. They get their three toughest games at home (Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss). May be tough to win all three of those. They do have the cocktail party and a trip to Knoxville but Florida will probably be 3-4 when they play and I can’t pick UT to beat Georgia until they do…..

Alabama – 11-1. DeBoer gets better his second year and Bama has an easyish schedule. I expect a loss at Georgia. Their three next toughest games are at home (Tennessee, LSU, Oklahoma). They do have Vandy to play again after last years loss.

Ole Miss -11-1. I tend to expect Ole Miss to do better than most. I exepect them to lose at Georgia. Their next hardest road game is at Oklahoma and their toughest home games are LSU, South Carolina and Florida. I think LSU will start their downword turn with the loss at Ole Miss.

Texas – 10-2. Really think the Ohio State game is a toss-up – but I have them going down there. Also have them losing at Georgia. Their toughest games outside these are A&M and Oklahoma two teams who probably will be worse than expected in my view.

Tennessee – 9-3. If Oklahoma is better than expected there is a 4th tough game. I have a hard time picking Tennessee to win at Bama or at Florida and have a hard time picking them over Georgia no matter where they play. Would be worried about a surprise road loss but UK and Miss State are the two worst teams in the SEC in my opinion.

LSU – 9-3. If LSU can break the opening game losing streak against a tough Clemson team they could be 10-2. At Bama and at Ole Miss are the two expected SEC losses. At Oklahoma could be scary but since it is the last game of the season I expect Oklahoma will already be thinking about a new coach

Texas A&M – 9-3. Three tough road games should do them in (Notre Dame, LSU, Texas). Don’t really expect them to be that good but their next toughest gane is either at Missouri or South Carolina at home……

Missouri – 8-4. I have them lower than most as they probably have the easiest SEC schedule. I have them losing to Bama and A&M at home and At Oklahoma and in a big upset at Auburn. South Carolina at home is the next toughest game.

Florida 6-6 – losses at LSU, at Miami, Texas, at Texas A&M, Georgia and Ole Miss, If the wheels come off Tennessee could knock them out of a bowl.

Vanderbilt – 6-6. Wins against Auburn and UK at home along with 4 non-conference wins.

Oklahoma – 6-6. Losses against Michigan and Texas in the first half. The second half of Ole Miss, at Tennessee, at Bama and LSU is brutal. The wins aren’t even easy in the second Hal with games at SC and home vs Mizzou.

Auburn – 5-7. If they beat Baylor they could be bowl bound with SEC wins against Mizzou and UK at home.

South Carolina 5-7. Probably way off here. Only three non –conference wins with a loss to Clemson. SEC losses at Mizzou, at LSU, Oklahoma, Bama, at Ole Miss and at A&M. Maybe they beat Mizzou or Oklahoma to be bowl eligible.

Arkansas – 4-8, Two tough non-conference games at Memphis and Notre Dame will keep them out of a bowl as they will win Auburn and Miss State at home.

Kentucky – 3-9. The annual game against Louisville may have an interim coach leading the loss after an 0-8 SEC season

Miss State - 3-9. Second year in a row with no SEC wins will be paied with a non- conference loss to Arizona State.

Thoughts on the Sweet 16

The detractors may be saying the SEC shouldn’t have gotten 14 teams into the Big Dance. I somewhat agree as two of the 14 only won a third of their conference games. I almost think there should be a rule that you need to win at least half of your conference games to get in. Arkansas would argue otherwise.

However, if you look at who made the sweet 16, it is hard to argue that the SEC has not only performed as expected but has over performed. Based on seeding, this is how many teams each conference should have remaining.

SEC - 6
Big 12 - 4
Big 10 -4
ACC -1
Big East -1

The results aren’t much different. The Big East is relegated to watching as they have no teams left. The Big 12, Big 10 and ACC have the same number as the seeding has suggested. Only the SEC has more than expected with 7 teams left.

So, how hard is it to get in the Sweet 16? There are 352 Division 1 schools this year so even being in the top 68 is an accomplishment. Being in the top 16 is pretty impressive. This is three years in a row for Tennessee, how impressive its that? Looking at the sweet 16 this year, only Tennessee, Alabama and Houston have made it to the Sweet 16 the last three years. So those who beat up on UT for not making it further should note that they are in select company just with their sweet 16 appearances.

If you want to stretch it further, only 8 teams in this years Sweet 16 have made it 2 out of the last three. The additional 5 are Purdue, Duke and Arizona who have made it twice in a row and Michigan State and Arkansas who missed last year but made it in 2023.

There could have been a crowd of three timers but 4 teams that had made it at least twice in a row didn’t make it there this year. This list starts with back to back champions UConn. The others are San Diego State, Creighton and Gonzaga.

One of those teams mentioned above is Houston. Not only have they been in three years in a row with Tennessee and Alabama, they have been to the sweet 16 6 straight times (only interruption is 2020 when there was no tournament).

Here is my prediction of the playoffs. I think I will be off by a mile.

The 4 byes
Oregon
Georgia
Boise State
Clemson (though could be Arizona State)

First round
Arizona State at Texas
Indiana at Notre Dame
SMU at Ohio State
Tennessee at Penn State

Would not be shocked if all 4 road teams win

Who is the 12th team in the CFP?

Right now if all holds (which the chance of that is zero based on yesterday), 11 of the 12 picks seem to be set.

Big 10 (4) : Oregon 11-0, Penn State, IO and Ohio State 10-1
SEC (3) : Texas 10-1, Georgia and Tennessee 9-2
ACC (1) : SMU or Miami - 10-1
Big 12 (1) : Arizona State, BYU, Iowa State 9-2 or one of the other 5 that could be in as much as an 8 way tie with a 6-3 conference record if all three of these lose
Independents (1) : Notre Dame 10-1
5th Best Conf Champ (1) ; Boise State 10-1

With the SEC all beating each other up, is it possible that the SEC only gets 3 teams? There are still three teams with three losses that you could argue is the 12th team (Alabama, Texas A&M and look whop joined the party - South Carolina). It seems like it would be hard though to pick any of those over a one loss ACC team if Miami and SMU both win. For that matter if Clemson beats South Carolina maybe they would be the 12th team.

Then there is the Big 12 - is a two loss Big 12 team more worthy than a three loss SEC team. Or lets throw in a 3 loss Big ten team. If the Big 10 has 4 teams in vs the 3 in the SEC maybe 8-3 Illinois should be considered?

Of course ESPN has the 12th team as Alabama. But it looks like the 12th team could be any of the following the two ACC runners up (Miami and Clemson assuming SMU is auto qualifier), two Big 12 teams (BYU and Iowa State assuming Arizona is auto qualifier), Illinois at 8-3 (very unlikely), or one of three 3 loss SEC teams (Texas A&M, Alabama or South Carolina).

Of course this simplifies itself if Texas A&M beats Texas and wins the SEC championship unless a 10-3 Georgia (after Championship loss) gets left out.

And don’t forget the 5th best conference champ - right now it looks like 10-1 Boise State but if they lose that opens things up to the AAC champ (9-1 Army or 9-2 Tulane and Memphis), Conference USA Champ if 8-2 Liberty wins it, Mountain West champ if it is UNLV 9-2 instead of Boise State or SunBelt champ if it is Louisiana at 9-2.

So there are 25 teams with a legitimate chance at the playoffs and that expands to 26 if two of the three Big 12 leaders lose and allow Colorado into their championship game and if there is an 8 way tie for the regular season championship or 7 way tie for second I think that number grows to 31 (hello Baylor, K State, TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia).

I guess this playoff thing is sort of fun after all.

Can Tennessee make the SEC Championship game?

I had visions of actually using my SEC championship game tickets instead of selling them early in the game against Georgia. As the game turned, I assumed that once again they will be for sale.

It appears that there will be a multiple team tie for one or maybe both spots in the championship game. If all goes as expected then a 7-1 (all records are conference only) Texas would make it and Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas and Ole Miss will all be 6-2.

Since Georgia is 6-2 already we have to hope for some scenario with a multi-team tie where Tennessee would have the advantage. With the multiple teams it is unlikely head-to -head matchup comes into play. The only way that that could happen is Texas losses to A&M and Ole Miss and Bama lose in the next two weeks. The three way tie for the second spot with Georgia, Texas and UT would then be head to head and Georgia beat both.

Alabama actually has the clearest path if they win out. There is virtually no scenario where they don’t have the second spot virtue off a probable 32-32 strength of schedule. If some how Texas and Texas A&M both get a loss (Texas would have to lose to UK and beat A&M or A&M would have to lose to Auburn and beat Texas) there could be 6 way tie. The two teams to go would be the two with the best strength of schedule.

Current projected Strength of Schedule if there were a 6 way tie (combined record of SEC opponents only)

Alabama : 32-32
Georgia : 30-34
Texas A&M : 28-36
Ole Miss : 24-40
Texas : 23-41
Tennessee : 23-41

Can we make total havoc happen? What if Ole Miss losses to Florida, Alabama losses to Oklahoma or Auburn, Texas A&M losses to Auburn, Texas losses to UK? Then the Texas - Texas A&M loser falls to 5-3. If Texas A&M is tied with Tennessee and Georgia there are no common opponents other than Florida and Miss State and all three teams swept. Strength of schedule then puts Georgia and Texas A&M in.

If all of the above happens and Texas beats A&M and losses to UK, it is a three way tie between Texas, Georgia and Tennessee Georgia as stated above beat both so they get the first spot. The second spot would then come down to strength of schedule. With all the upsets things change a little but it comes down to this. Texas and Tennessee had 7 common opponents so the question is the record of the 8th. If Bama lost to either Auburn or Oklahoma they would fall to 5-3. And in this scenario. Texas A&M would lose to Auburn and Texas and would also be 5-3.

The tiebreaker that would actually settle it is looking at how you did against the top teams. The first time their is a difference is Texas beat Arkansas (3-5) and UT didn’t. Texas would have lost to UK (2-6) as the other difference . Maybe this is backwards and the SEC should change it. Isn’t it better to lose to a 3-5 team than a 2-6 team? In any event Texas would go

All this just means that Tennessee cant make it to the SEC championship. Of course, maybe there is a scenario out there I didn’t come up with.

Could their be a 7 way tie for second in the SEC?

There are only a few games left that will decide the SEC Championship game participants. Of course in the SEC, upsets can appear from anywhere but for the moment lets assume that all the ranked teams beat the teams not currently ranked.

These 6 games could create total havoc if these results happen :

A&M beats LSU
A&M beats Texas
Bama beats LSU
Bama beats Mizzou
UGa beats Tennessee
Ole Miss beats UGA

LSU, Tennessee and Texas would also have to beat currently ranked Vandy.

If the above happens, Texas A&M finishes 8-0, LSU, UGA, Tennessee, Mizzou, Texas, Alabama and Ole Miss all end up 6-2. Good luck figuring out who goes to play A&M in Atlanta.

Vols Offense - Dr. Jekyll vs Mr. Hyde

The last two games the Tennessee offense has been close to awful. The interesting thing is that the first half of both games the offense has been non-existent. Tennessee has zero points in both games in the first half. They also only managed 6 in the send half of their other SEC game. We will call that the Mr. Hyde offense.

On the other hand the offense has shown some signs of normalcy in the second half of the last two games and the first half of Oklahoma scoring 56 in those three half. If they maintain that for an entire game that would be an average of about 37 a game which would be the 22nd best average in the NCAA. We will call that the Dr. Jekyll offense.

The question is, which offense will show up the rest of the year. And how many wins can UT get with each offense. Of course they would need a little Dr. Jekyll to win any games as the 2 Point average of the Mr. Hyde offense wouldn’t beat anyone.

First the Mr Hyde Offense :

With this offense, besides UTEP, the best chances of winning are against Kentucky who currently is averaging 12.8 a game in SEC games which is even less than UT’s 20.7. Kentucky does have a stout defense only allowing 20.3 but that is not as strong as UT’s which is allowing 17. This game could be as low scoring as the 3-2 SEC game a few years ago.

Miss State also looks like a good candidate. They are averaging 24 in their SEC games but their defense is so awful (allowing 40.3) even Mr. Hyde should be able to outscore them.

I don’t really see another win with the Mr. Hyde offense - this would leave Tennessee 8-4.

If the Dr Jekyll offense shows up a couple other games are in reach.

Vandy is much improved and averaging 29 in SEC games. I don’t think they can get there against the UT defense. Probably 21 or 24 is the best they can hope for. If Tennessee can just get what Vandy is allowing on average (26) they will come out victorious. It helps that This is the last game of the year and the week after getting to play UTEP where offense should be plentiful. This win gets UT to 9-3.

The other two games look tough either way and were considered the two toughest on the schedule.

It looks like Alabama might be the most likely chance at win number 10 and receive a probable birth in the playoffs.. Bama is scoring 34.3 a game which seems to be a pretty high mountain to climb. On the other hand they are allowing 33 which is more than any opponent left not named Miss State. The Tennessee defense should be able to hold them under 30. Can they get the 37 that a Dr. Jekyll offense could produce. Or can they at least get more than 30? All of Alabama’s other SEC opponents have other than South Carolina.

Georgia seems to be the toughest remaining opponent. Of the remaining SEC opponents they are allowing the least points (24.3) other than Kentucky and are scoring the most (29.8) with the exception of Alabama. It sure wont help that this is in Athens.

I still have hopes that 10-2 is possible. In all probability we will know how likely that is tomorrow.

Playoffs?

With the upcoming game between UT and Oklahoma there is much talk of Tennessee making the payoffs.

I have heard talk of a 10-2 Tennessee team being a sure thing and a 9-3 team having a chance. I thought that a 9-3 team making it was pretty ridiculous until I did a little research.

We have had the college football playoff rankings in place since 2014. It was a 4 team playoff starting in 2014 moving to a 12 team this year. But who would have made a 12 team play-off the past 9 years (I ignored 2020)? Would there have been some 9-3 teams in the playoffs? Let’s look at each year. This is based on the last weekly rankings by the CFP committee

2014 - Automatic Qualifiers (6 auto qualifiers with the Pac 12 and a Group of 5 team)- Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State, TCU or Baylor, Oregon, Boise State.
At Large : Baylor 11-1 or TCU 11-1, Michigan State 10-2, Mississippi State 10-2, Arizona State 10-3 (3rd loss in conference Championship), Ole Miss 9-3, Kansas State 9-3
TCU and Baylor were co-champs - TCU was ranked higher so probably would be the auto-qualifier.

2015 - Auto Qualifiers - Alabama, Clemson, Michigan St, Oklahoma, Stanford, Houston
At Large - Iowa 12-1, Florida State 10-2, TCU 10-2, Notre Dame 10-2, North Carolina 11-2, Ohio State 11-1 - First team out Ole Miss 9-3

2016- Auto Qualifiers - Alabama, Clemson, Penn State, Oklahoma, Washington, Western Michigan
At Large - Ohio State 11-1, Michigan 10-2, Colorado 10-3 (3rd loss in Conf Championship), Wisconsin (3rd loss in Conference Championship), Florida State 9-3, USC 9-3

2017 - Auto Qualifiers - Georgia, Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma, USC, UCF
At Large - Alabama’s 11-1, Wisconsin 12-1 Washington 10-2, Miami 10-2, Penn State 10-2. Auburn 10-3 (3rd loss in Conf Championship) - First team out Stanford 9-4 (4th loss in Conf Championship)

2018 - Auto Qualifiers - Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Washington, UCF (coached by Josh Heupel)
At Large - Notre Dame 12-0, Georgia 11-2, Michigan 10-2. Florida 9-3, LSU 9-3, Penn State 9-3

2019 - Auto Qualifiers - LSU, Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Memphis
At Large - Georgia 11-2, Baylor 11-2, Utah 11-2, Florida 10-2, Penn State 10-2, Wisconsin 10-3 (3rd loss in Conf Championship) - First Team out - Auburn 9-3

2021 - Auto Qualifiers - Alabama, Pitt, Michigan, Baylor, Utah, Cincinnati
At Large - Georgia 12-1, Notre Dame 11-1, Oklahoma State 11-2, Ohio State 10-2, Michigan State 10-2, Ole Miss 10-2 - First team with three losses that didn’t get their third loss in their Conference championship was NC State ranked #18

2022 - Auto Qualifiers - Georgia, Clemson, Michigan, Kansas State, Utah, Tulane
At Large - TCU 12- 1, Ohio State 12-1, USC 11-2, Alabama 10-2, Tennessee 10-2, Penn State 10-2 - Second team out is first team with 3 losses (Florida State)

2023- Alabama, Florida State, Michigan, Texas, Washington, Liberty
At Large - Georgia 12-1, Ohio State 11-1, Oregon 11-2, Missouri 10-2, Ole Miss 10-2, Penn State 10-2 - Second Team out is first team with 3 losses (LSU)

It appears that three losses could get you in. In 2014, 2016 and 2018 there were teams with three regular season losses. 2015 and 2019 the first team out had 3 losses (and as they were SEC teams I am sure people will argue they were better than some of the 10-2 team. In 2017, Stanford was the first team out with 4 losses (4th being a conference championship.

The last 2 years the second team out had three losses so they were in the hunt until the end of the season.

2021 was really the only year where a three loss team was nowhere close.

It is Football time in Tennessee - time for my predictions/schedule analysis.

Instead of chronological, I have divided the schedule into 5 categories.

1. We are really playing these guys?
The only good thing about COVID is that all the games were conference games and no cupcakes. We should win all of these by at least 5 TDs. We start in about an hour against UT Chattanooga followed by games against Kent State and UTEP later in the season.
2. The teams barely in the SEC
Pretty universal that the three worst SEC teams are Vandy, Arkansas and Miss State. Miss State runs the same offense as us but with much worse players. Arkansas will try to run against our awesome line. The only scary thing is that it is a road game. Vanderbilt wil probably have an interim coach by the time we play. Count this as three more wins.
3. Rivalry games with teams that can be problematic
Both are home games and both we will be favored. Kentucky should actually have a decent record when we meet. Georgia and Ole Miss will have spanked them and at Florida and Auburn may be tough but they will have 4 wins for sure. Just don’t think they can win in Knoxville. As for Florida, they have their easy games before playing us but they could already have losses to Miami, Texas A&M and maybe even UCF. If they are 4-1 this game could be scary. Still going to call both of these wins.
4. Make or break games.
If we win the 8 games above then these two may decide if we are playoff worthy. NC State scares me as it seems people are blowing this game off as a sure win. I think we win but it could be close. Winning at Oklahoma would be monumental. I think that there are too many factors in Oklahoma’s favor. At home, first ever SEC game, against an Alum who really really really wants this win. I have to go with Oklahoma.
5. Games against SEC royalty.
I doubt I pick us to beat Georgia until Smart leaves (said that about Saban and was mostly right). I really think UGa wins them all this year and would pick them by 2 TDs over about anyone. The King is dead - long live the king is probably the mantra for Bama fans. They will be 5-1 when they get here. But I think they leave here 5-2.

So that makes us 10-2. I Pick us tied for 4th. I have Georgia (12-0), Ole Miss (11-1), Texas (11-1) as playoff locks. I have LSU as 10-2 like us. It may come down to the voters deciding between them and us for the playoffs or there is a slight chance we both go.

Tennessee football appears to be back to being a major factor in college football. Will we be a top 5 team every year like in the 90s, probably not. Will they be a factor when it comes to the playoffs, probably.

The obvious most important player for the next two years is Nico. Right now I would say that the second most important player is the second string center. The hope would be this year’s second string center is the starter for couple years.

It has been a night and day difference between Tennessee with Cooper Mays and Tennessee without him. As Cooper is a 12th year senior (or something like that), we need to find a replacement ASAP. This year it may be Cooper is the next most important player after Nico, but if you are looking at keeping UT a factor beyond this year, Cooper’s backup is the most important.