Market Misbehavior

With a confirmed break below the 200-day moving average, crude oil now in a distribution phase. A valid break back above $80 would invalidate the bearish thesis. Watching for a countertrend bounce off oversold conditions!

$SPX getting dangerously close to our initial "line in the sand" at 7340. Is a break below this level the end of the great bull market of 2026? Not necessarily... but it would unlock downside objectives in our process. Webcast this week covering our Market Top Checklist may be timely! 👀 https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/redflags

Tomorrow at 1:00 PM ET.

The Market Top Checklist: 7 Red Flags of a Major Market Peak.

Most investors don't catch a market top until it's already behind them. The signs are usually there first, if you know what you're looking at.

I'll walk through all 7 live tomorrow. Save your spot.

https://streamyard.com/watch/YwBptEeiJFtE

With markets closed for Juneteenth, I spent some time answering viewer questions on technical analysis and market trends.

Topics include:
✅ Breadth divergences
✅ Small-cap participation
✅ Dow Theory
✅ Market structure
✅ NAAIM sentiment readings
✅ Better trade management

Check out the full discussion:
https://youtu.be/wzxyOWnuZNs

Are Breadth Divergences a Warning Sign? Plus My Take on Dow Theory in 2026 | CHART THIS With markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday, Dave uses this spec...

Are we in an AI bubble?

David Lundgren argues that investors spend too much time debating the bubble and not enough time watching market structure.

In this week's Market Misbehavior podcast, we discuss:
📈 Momentum investing
📊 Trend following
🦖 Why Jurassic Park is actually a great analogy for market bubbles
⚠️ The warning signs investors should monitor
🛡️ How systematic processes help manage risk

One of my favorite interviews of the year. Give it a listen!

It's Different This Time! Right? | 2026's Market (bubble) with Dave Lundgren In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined b...

US Dollar $USD $DXY breaking above 100 this week, a level where the dollar has topped a number of times over the last year. This time is different?.....

Chaikin Money Flow has turned negative for the first time since mid-April. This indicator shows a one-month volume reading, weighted by the severity of up/down closes. The bigger the move, the more important the volume! This suggests distribution in June.

Pretty rough day yesterday for breadth, but long-term measures still holding clearly in the bullish range. Still over 50% of $SPX members above their 50-day moving averages, and over 60% above the 200-day MA.

Value sectors improving on a relative basis, with industrials $XLI, financials $XLF, and materials $XLB all outperforming $SPX in June.

Best way to outperform the benchmark?

Own stocks that are outperforming the benchmark.