20/09/2026
Ben Shelton’s US Open final loss adds another data point to a fascinating Grand Slam pattern.
Shelton reached his first Grand Slam final at the 2026 US Open, but ultimately lost to Alexander Zverev 6–3, 7–6(2), 5–7, 6–2.
So, how unusual is it for a player to win their first major final?
Looking at the Open Era (1968–2026), our analysis shows that 35.2% of first-time men’s Grand Slam finalists go on to win the title — 38 out of 108. For women, the figure is 36.8% (39 out of 106).
In other words, historically, roughly two out of every three first-time finalists lose their first Grand Slam final.
Shelton is now part of that statistic. But the numbers also show that losing the first one is far from unusual — and the next chapter is often the more interesting one.
What do you think: does reaching a first Slam final make a player more likely to win one in the future?