Colonel Cowboy and America’s Team

My week 3 take. I think the Cowboys end the streak.

If you are a Veteran who needs help or know a Veteran who does, some great resources below:

Call 988 and select 1.
Text 838255.
If you have hearing loss, call TTY: 800-799-4889.

My week 2 take.

I really wanted to see this team compete against this Aaron Rodgers led Jets team. It would be a useful measuring stick early on if how good this team might be.

That said, the Defense of the Jets is still very real and they still have offensive weapons and an OC who has shown ability to win with less proven players.

Both Defenses are the talk of the NFL. But how these Offenses respond will be fun to watch.

New season, new content, new format. The truth is I simply do not have the time balancing my personal and professional life to develop my previous content in narrative format. I do this because its a passion, I’m no professional (and it shows!).

The other truth, in a microwave society where people want to get results immediately, this format may be preferred. It’s week one and I’ll likely play around with formatting as the season goes along.

What is reflected on this single slide is the fusion of several hours of ingested content and some assessments on it all. I use 3-4 different sources of content but in the end this is my take, for what its worth (perhaps not worth “the paper” its printed on).

90% of the analysts I follow pick the Cowboys to win, I did not. I hope I am wrong. Don’t get me wrong, the Cowboys are a better team, but they have had a significant series of changes on the offense side and it remains to be seen if it all is for the better. The Giants on the other hand have maintained a very similar system with the infusion of a far better draft class. Couple that with some key injuries on the offensive line, a formidable NYG defensive front and this will be tougher for Dallas than desired.

As we saw Thursday night in the opener, it looks to be an exciting NFL season (I think the Lions are a very real candidate to win the NFC North), especially with the departure of Rodgers.

WHEN THE DARK BECAME THE LIGHT

There was a time when the end of football season was a dark time for me. I fell into a sports void, only buoyed by the quick fix of March Madness and then I wandered aimlessly a little more until the crack of the bat on opening day of Major League Baseball.

During this time, it wasn’t until September rolled around that my sports soul emerged from the darkness of the NFL offseason. But times have changed.

7 years ago I was introduced to the work of Bryan Broaddus (105.3 The Fan) and Dane Brugler (The Athletic), two of the very best in the business in monitoring the NFL Draft Process. While many of us are enjoying the NFL season, Dane is digging in deep on the next generation of players. He is visiting and calling college programs and even high schools to better understand the talent pool that would be drawn from in the April NFL draft every year. It results in what I consider the most comprehensive draft guide in the business affectionately known as “The Beast.” If interested, look for it on the Athletic, its…amazing.

In my ”regular” job I have always enjoyed strategy and talent management. Having had the privilege to lead in complex organizations, I find it fascinating to watch the shifting of “how” you go about doing something with “what” you have as a resource produces different outcomes.

People ask me why I am so passionate about the Dallas Cowboys, especially since they have not won a Super Bowl since I joined the military in 1996. Some of it is tied to my childhood memories, some of it out of principle is tied to the concept of loyalty. But all of that is nested in the simple fact that it is fun, an escape of sorts from some of the complex challenges in the world that I have to contend with in my daily job.

My military experience is the ULTIMATE team experience, but I believe football is the ULTIMATE team sport. I love them both.

But in recent years, the light that has muted the darkness in the NFL offseason has been the build up to the NFL draft. I can thank Broaddus and Dane for that, and the many others that have come since them.

Today the NFL Combine opens up in earnest in Indianapolis. Here is the breakout on how this will be covered, concluding on Sunday.

Thu: Defensive Linemen, Linebackers
Fri: Defensive Backs
Sat: Quarterbacks, Wide Receivers, Tight Ends
Sun: Running Backs, Offensive Linemen

Dallas in recent years has had an unusually larger number of picks, and they tend to use them all, reflective of their “draft and develop” ideology. Will that hold this year, or will they be more bold in filling some of their projected voids? None of us know. But its fun to watch.

I mentioned Dane Brugler. In January he publishes a “Top 15” by position list, its important to note, its dynamic. The Senior Bowl happens, then a follow on list is published, his “Top 100” players. Getting that closer look at the Senior Bowl as compared against those who made the cut to be invited informs player standings.

Today it goes a step further, the Combine will further inform how the stock rises or lowers for each player. The biggest part of the combine is the part we never get to see, the medical evaluations. This has a profound impact on the future of players (Cowboys LB Damone Clark is a great example of that…originally a Rd 2 prospect, he slipped to Rd 5 after a medical condition was diagnosed at the combine).

Here is a pre combine list that reflects the number of players by position (least to greatest) that are in the top 100 from Dane’s list. Draft classes are like fingerprints, they are all different. Knowing that better informs your draft strategy (and theoretically your FA approach).

DE: 16, *WR: 13, *CB: 11, *DT: 10, *RB: 10, OT: 9, *TE: 7, LB: 7, *IOL: 6, S: 5, QB: 4 (asterisks indicate my initial assessment of likely Top 100 picks for the Cowboys…absent any known FA moves…will refine my assessment after that activity has played out).

That said, if you enjoy the NFL like I do, I welcome you to the light and the NFL pre draft process. There are a ton of young men who will change their lives forever with performances and interviews in the coming months. I would put the Cowboys in the top 1/3 of drafting, they generally do really well. The question will be, is that enough? So far, the answer has been no.

COWBOYS.COM may be available for sale or other proposals A unique opportunity to secure COWBOYS.COM for your brand

Some key calendar dates leading up to the draft (27-29 Apr):

21 Feb: Beginning on this date through 1600 EST on 7 Mar, clubs may designate Franchise Players.

28 Feb-6 Mar: NFL Combine (Lucas Oil Stadium)

7 Mar: College Pro Days Begin

7 Mar-19 Apr: Draft Eligible 30 day visits (non-local players, no workouts)

7 Mar-26 Apr: Video or telephone interviews with draft eligible. 3x video or telephone interviews per player. Not to exceed one hour in length.

13-15 Mar: Negotiation Period. Clubs are permitted to contact and enter into negotiations with certified agents of players who will become Unrestricted Free Agents.

15 Mar: End/Start of League Year

15 Mar: Trading period begins (1600 EST)

26-29 Mar: Annual League Meeting (Phoenix, AZ)

3 Apr: Clubs that hired a new head coach can begin off season workouts

17 Apr: Clubs with returning head coaches can begin off season workouts

19 Apr: Deadline for clubs to time, test, visit, interview or conduct physicals with draft eligible players at its club facility.

21 Apr: Deadline for Restricted Free Agents to sign offer sheets

27 Apr: Deadline for clubs to time, test, visit, interview or conduct physicals with draft eligible players at any location

27-29 Apr: NFL Draft (Kansas City, MO)

For over a quarter century, we as Cowboys fans have to watch other teams play. Not as fun. That said, here are some interesting details on the Super Bowl (Forbes):

* The point spread 1.5 (Eagles favored—blah), there have only been two other Super Bowls with spreads under 2 points in the last 40 years.

* Cheapest Super Bowl ticket on TicketIQ $5,581, average available ticket $8,837.

* $200.1 million total payroll for the Eagles, $212 million for the Chiefs. Both are in the bottom third of the league in player spending. As much as I loathe and detest the Eagles, their player personnel management is a model to watch….and they have two first round picks this April. Makes me ill.

* $1.4 billion, net worth of Rihanna. The first time a billionaire performs at the Super Bowl. Artists do not get paid to perform. The exposure is their “payment.”

* $3.7 billion, estimated value of the Chiefs franchise, despite some sustained success in the Mahomes era their valuation ranks 23rd of 32 teams in the NFL.

* $16.5 billion total spending on food, drinks, apparel, and other decorations for the day.

* $20 amount the Gilbert family spent on their pillow they will be sleeping on while the Super Bowl is playing.

Pulling for Patrick and former UTEP Defensive Coach Andy Reid against his old team. If he can pull off this win with the retirement of Brady, I think this puts Mahomes in the category of “there is Pat Mahomes, and then everybody else” in the current league.

SEASON 2022 Vol 18

FROM GOOD TO GREAT

An inspired Dak is a GREAT Dak.

To cut to the chase, #4 will have the GREATEST impact on the outcome of this game for his team this week. If he plays anywhere close to the way he played last week (GREAT), and the Cowboys front introduces a level of pressure Brock Purdy has not seen, the Cowboys will likely win. It’s that simple. GREAT Dak or Bad Dak, who will show up?

It’s not the grass field or the record they have had this season on that surface. The Cowboys blew that theory out of the water last week. It’s not the fact that the kicker Maher has never kicked at Levi Stadium. That said, it could very well be a story if this game is close and the kicker shows up again with a case of the yips. But none of it outweighs the significance of the need for Dak to play GREAT. 30 passes or less, balanced rushing attack. Unleash Parsons. Tackle, tackle, tackle. Go.

Last week Prescott was connecting with his receivers in rhythmic ways that had been missing for months. He was using his feet when needed to keep the defense guessing, and most refreshing of all, he had ZERO turnovers. This broke a streak that he has had since the Vikings game in November where he had at least a turnover a game. It has been a historically bad season for Prescott with interceptions, in fact his only other game where he did not have one was against the Lions late October.

As Dak goes, so goes the team.

No turnovers, means the defense does not have to defend short fields. The confidence on the sidelines is different. Even the running game cooks. In the two games where Dak had no interceptions, the Cowboys averaged 145 yards on the ground. But when you turn the ball over, and you are desperate to drive the ball downfield to play catch up on the points you may have just gave up, your offense becomes more predictable.

Full transparency, I predicted the 49’ers to win it all. The whole damn thing. Yes, even with a rookie QB. The whole…damn….thing. I think they are the best team in the NFC, and let’s not forget the often overlooked ingredient, coaching.

I think the best QB in football is Patrick Mahomes, but he does not have the depth or quality of weapons at the disposal of young Brock Purdy. Nor does Mahomes have a relentless defense who gives up the least amount of points and yards per game in the league.

The 49ers are absolutely beatable, the Seahawks showed that for three quarters last week, but it will be no easy day any way you slice it. The Dallas offensive line, once celebrated their depth, but are one injury away from inserting an unproven back up. Dan Quinn will need an entirely different defensive game plan for this powerful offense (I hope DQ exhausted all thoughts on that between Head Coach interviews this week, yes that is a jab, love you DQ but we need all that job interview prep focused on 49er prep).

In the beginning of the season I said something. #4 will be 30 years old at the start of the season next year. The game last week was the best performance in the biggest game of his career. Full stop. But if he wants to move the meter on “average quarterback” talk and go from “good to great” it is games like this that can do it. The mark of a professional is consistency #4, show us what you got.

The evidence is there, the Cowboys can win this game. This could very well be a game of the ages. I hope so, because those post season Cowboys/49ers years were a good time.

Coming this weekend. First article on our new page. Cowboys vs 49ers