Football and Horse Racing Analysis by ALM

4ème Journée - Value Bets / Outsiders


Improved during the break but had a tough first race 2026. Jumped well but was wide, restrained completely to be at the back, pulling a lot and attacked wide..yet did not give up and ended up in 36s. The 3 laps of 11s on 12.05 easily was very good! Jumps well and drawn 2, could try something!


WarCharriot should probably not be beaten. But Stated was a horse I followed some time back at Floreal (interval training). Looks well and could try to cause an upset with Collis. One for the notebook.

or
With the Blinkers on 1st time, JustVar will surely try go for the lead. CaptainCola won't be far and might fight for the lead. With a good pace and in the form they currently are, expect bold runs from both of these outsiders! Even FatefulDay seems much better now.


Front Runners/CloseToPace - Wugug/S.Snow/S.O.T.Sea/G.Living
In such circumstances there are many outsiders which have been working really very well, circumstances will be determining:
WithoutEqual / TsunamiWarning / Zacatoo🔥

Levé Pilé Win: New World / War Chariot / Crescent

Big hirse of 550kgs. Such types usually need at least one run under the belt to perform but he gave a really good account of himself of over a way too short trip for him. Struggled to follow Centurion when the latter took off but still concluded really well. To follow closely over 1600+ and possibly some kgs off.


Always prefer to lead but on short sprint and draw, was tougher this time. Still, did very well coming from behind. Next time.over 1400+ or with a better draw, will certainly strike. The horse was very very well.


Was not the best looking horse at trackwork nor in the paddock. Will benefit from this run over a way too short trip for him. To follow closely if he improves at trackwork and over 1600+ next time..

(Picture credits to all photographers / websites📸)

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Value Bets for 2nd Meeting

Race 1
has shown much improvement at trackwork and has gained precious weight on the balance. If not too nervous, might show why he was at Rs170 on his 1st outing here. Patiently trained by the stable/teeha.

Race 4
looked really good at Floreal some weeks back. Has been working pretty consistently at PL with PortLouis / Centurion and others. Yes, SForce seems to be a hard nut to crack but she should be able to give a good account of herself.

Race 6
has been rather consistent throughout his debut season here. Not a bad horse. Training well and with some luck, with possibly the best jockey on the island on board this time, he might just come in time to steal it.

*Should Win*

will benefit from the circumstances and should bag yet another one.
looks calmer now. Stable seemingly expect a lot from him.

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Decent gatespeed but taken to the end of the field. Accelerated well when asked to. Next time with Santana over 1400m - might well win! (Keep an eye on the horse's weight though)


Should have finished closer or could have even won. His jockey was a bit quick at restraining his mount after the start. Could have been in front of MyArchangel or at least in New World's position. Was pulling a bit throughout whilst Quasiforsure chose to make a move. Took some time to get going prior to turning home but finished decently at 1.6L. 1600m and if able to hit the front next time, might be a hard nut to crack.


Probably the unluckiest horse on the day. Jumped decently but found himself behind fading horse when the sprint was on. Rapidash made his move on the outside and went on winning whilst Selukwe had to wait the final 300m or so to get going. Big horse so it takes time to gather momentum. Will be a very hard nut to crack in classic races!


Decent gatespeed but found himself 3 wide almost throughout the race. Should have ended among the last but his potential is such that he was beaten by merely 4L. Even if he's one off next time over sprint or the mile, he'll be the horse to beat.

(Picture credits to all photographers / websites📸)

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First Meeting 2026

Some value bets:


Beaten fair and square by S.Snow on his first outing though very keen and not the best of rides. Has improved much at trackwork and will benefit from a good pace in this one. Watch out with GN.


After a first good race, did not quite confirm his ability. Seems to have improved a lot (possibly was suffering from something). Although favourite is strong, to have an eye on KT.


Needs not necessarily lead and will have a good jockey on board with Santana. Beware although others are favourites.

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18 April 2026

Still early prep for some but some interesting and intriguing work-outs:

1) KRIM
Still as nervous, mischievous, 'caracteriel'..but once he's asked to work, he showed that he has a lot of potential and we can expect a big first run from him.

2) STATED
Lovely looking horse who had one of the most intriguing work-outs. Interval training? Very likely. Followed him all the way to his box and although he's shown nothing in Mauritius thus far, follow him as from.his very first outing!

3) CAPTAIN ARROW
The trainer has been taking real good care and patience with this horse. Has worked really well and looks in good shape. Win first time out? Likely🌟

Others
looks like a very promising sort.
is one to keep in the notebook.
will do very well here..keep following him.

● Do NOT bet against WARHEAD in his next outings over 1000m or even 1365m. Should win 3 or 4 in a row!



● COURTLY and MASTER OF MYSTERY should win again
● AMANCIO might no longer have the latter in this path next time


■ GlobalDollar should be able to strike on longer next time
■RAINWATER - poor ride but made up ground in the straight. Beware next time

● SOLOMONS SEAL / MASTER OF MYSTERY / MYSTIC MAJESTY won't be beaten next time out too


●Kola Tonic - tough race but never quite faded. Will be a hard nut to crack next time out.

● Cliff Swallow - Would have gone really close if not winning his race without traffic problem. Most likely to be hot favourite next time.

● Captain Lannister - Eye catching. Follow with good draw on 1365m.

●Warbird - Confirmed good form in training. Will be favourite next time out though.

R1
- Nordic Prince
2nd last race cost Schwarz his job
Last race beaten by better but jockey started using whip only half way in the final straight

- Kola Tonic
Relatively light sort who came to form quite quickly. Looks in pretty good shape and could emulate MysticMajesty

R2
- MysticMajesty
Pace will be on and is even better with a race under the belt. Should be hard to beat.

- Short Cut
Down in class, 2nd best last 600m after M.Majesty. Will be well placed, could have 1st run.

R3
- MasterOfMystery
Should already have won last time. Up in distance hugely in his favour. Superb form currently, tried with Blinkers in a BT and jumped okay. Should break the ice.

- Fireflare
Down by two classes. Worked well with S.Selvagio. Last race to be ignored - slow out, tried making a move 4 wide..did not quicken but finished some 2L off A.Challenge. Distance to suit him. Beware!

R4
- National Award
Impressive win despite slipped saddle last time. Finished in 35.2s despite not being 'fully' ridden in the last 200m. Hard nut to crack with longer trip.

- Secret Oasis
Should be able to lead again. Beaten by S.Force (well backed) last time out in the dying metres. 50m less, Danielson onboard albeit 62kgs this time..could try pillar to post.

R5
- Sun Blushed
Classy and beautiful sort. Well drawn and in a very good form to kick off his Mauritian career. Should win at even 75% of his capabilities.

- CaptainBombshell
Did get the better of S.Blushed in SA, with 6kgs better off. This time - 7kgs better off and 2 runs under the belt - probably the only one who will/can fight the favourite.

R6
- At My Command
Tipped to stay unbeaten this season and might well win the last classic of the season. Superb form and should not be beaten.

- Port Louis
Missed start yet made ground. Compressed weight against him. New equipments on to help for better start too. Curatolo already knows him, 2nd best?

R7
- SolomansSeal
Banker of the day? Down by 2 classes, drawn ace, better form, one run under the belt. Tried everything last time and should be very hard to beat.

- Sea Dance
Will try a bis-repetita of last race: pillar to post. Those who follow close to him often struggle to quicken when Taka presses the button at the 400m mark. Can S.Seal quicken of he's box seated?

R8
- Monumental
Easy choice given that he's down 2 classes, he had to follow last and only ran the last 300m of the race whilst still finishing in 35s. Drawn 4 and could be midfield this time. Only question mark is that he's a very light sort and it's his 2nd race this month.

- San Andreas
Coming back in great shape after being scratched last time. If Bon Voyage fights for the lead with Good Living and the pace is on, he'll conclude well with Monumental.

- At My Command
- Fireflare

Spirit's Unite, Crescent and Zoomie are bound to win more and climb the ladder.
Unsung Hero was heroic!
Zeus will be a very hard nut to crack for the Maiden!


One and All and Iditarod Trail ran well as expected.
TsunamiWarning with a good jockey next time could do very well.