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11/09/2019

Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

All your in-game updates for week one’s NFC East clash between the Giants and Cowboys.

Pregame

If you haven’t heard, the Cowboys plays for real today as they host their NFC East rival New York Giants in the late afternoon. Here is a list of the inactives for todays game:

Cowboys: LB Luke Gifford, DE Taco Charlton, DT Trysten Hill, DB Darian Thompson, DB Donovan Wilson, OL Brandon Knight, OL Adam Redmond

Though there were a few whispers, the Cowboys All-Pro Guard Zack Martin will play in the season opener.

Giants: QB Alex Tanney, RB Paul Perkins, TE Garrett Dickerson, WR Darius Slayton, OL Chad Slade, OL Eric Smith

The offseason is kaput. The real thing starts this weekend for the Dallas Cowboys as they host the New York Giants on Sunday afternoon. The Cowboys finished last season as the NFC East champs and managed to win a playoff game. The Giants struggled through a 5-11 season and hope to have shaken up their roster enough over the offseason to start climbing back up the standings.

The Cowboys return much of their roster, including running back Ezekiel Elliott who the Cowboys extended just a few days ago closing out a long holdout. The offense will be led by Zeke, Dak Prescott, and Amari Cooper, along with a formidable offensive line that includes the return of Travis Frederick. Oh yeah, some guy named Jason Witten is also back with the team.

On defense, the Cowboys rely on DeMarcus Lawrence, along with skilled linebackers Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch. Dallas also features a talented cornerback group on defense. Eli Manning still leads the Giants at quarterback, but the main threat is super-talent Saquon Barkley. He’s the key for the Cowboys to shut down in order to go 1-0 to start the 2019 season.

What You Need To Know

Important links: Cowboys depth chart | Roster

Date: September 8th, 2019

Game time: 4:25 PM EST

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

TV channel: FOX

Coverage Map: 506 Sports

Announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman

Radio: 105.3 The Fan | Full listings | SIRIUS XM

Streaming: Fubo | FOX Sports Go | NFL.com GamePass (audio only until after game)

Cowboys record: (0-0)

Giants record: (0-0)

Odds: Dallas -7.5

Prediction: Dallas 29 - New York 17

Enemy blog: Big Blue View

Twitter:

Facebook: Please Like us!

Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports All your in-game updates for week one’s NFC East clash between the Giants and Cowboys. Pregame If you haven...

11/09/2019

Photo by: 2019 Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images

Our panel of 10 experts — nine human, one animal — welcomes the new season with predictions for all 16 games.

The waiting game is over. You made it through free agency, the NFL Draft, training camp, preseason, and the extra boring stuff in between. It’s time for football that counts.

Kicking it off Thursday is a divisional game between the Packers and Bears — a matchup that dates back almost a century and also gave us the best Week 1 action of 2018. Khalil Mack went full Super Saiyan to help Chicago to a 17-0 lead at halftime just days after he was traded. Then a hobbled Aaron Rodgers somehow threw three touchdowns in the fourth quarter to pull out a Green Bay win.

It was a ridiculously thrilling game that looks fluky in hindsight.

Chicago went on to finish the year 12-4 and earn a trip to the playoffs. Green Bay sputtered to a 6-9-1 record, its worst mark in 10 years. Late in the season, Mike McCarthy was fired and now the Packers are starting over with Matt LaFleur as head coach.

The Bears proved to be the better squad, but their season-opening loss exemplifies why Week 1 is so fun. Every team enters with high hopes for the upcoming season and — even after the dust settles on the first week of the regular season — it’s hard to tell which teams are actually good.

That makes it a nightmare to try to predict winners in the first week. Alas, we’re going to give a shot anyway, beginning with Thursday’s game, which proved to be the toughest one for our experts to pick. In fact, they are split right down the middle, with five taking the Bears and five picking the Packers.

The panel is also somewhat divided on matchups between the Falcons and Vikings, Bills and Jets, 49ers and Buccaneers, and the Monday Night Football doubleheader of Texans-Saints and Broncos-Raiders.

There are a handful of teams that are getting overwhelming support, though.

Hop aboard the Browns hype train

Cleveland is real excited about the Browns this year. Like, running-down-the-street-screaming-and-scaring-the-neighbors level excited.

The Browns won five of their last seven games in 2018 and enter this year with expectations sky high. Baker Mayfield is a year wiser after setting the NFL rookie record for touchdown passes. He also now has Odell Beckham Jr. on his list of weapons, which already included Jarvis Landry, David Njoku, and Nick Chubb.

The defense should be better, too. Cleveland added Sheldon Richardson and Olivier Vernon to a defensive line that boasts former No. 1 overall pick Myles Garrett.

On paper, everything looks amazing and our experts are buying in. Almost everyone thinks the Browns will beat the Titans — a team with three straight winning seasons — in Week 1. But if Tennessee wins, then one member of our group will have bragging rights.

The panel also believes the Ravens will handle the Dolphins, the Eagles will beat Washington, the Cowboys will take care of the Giants, and the Seahawks will win against the Bengals.

There’s clearly not much faith in the Colts without Andrew Luck, because the experts are going with the Chargers in Week 1.

But wait, who are these experts, you ask?

Here are your 2019 NFL oracles

This year, our panel consists of:

SB Nation NFL editor Sarah Hardy

Former NFL players and SB Nation contributors Stephen White and Geoff Schwartz

SB Nation NFL writers Christian D’Andrea, Charles McDonald, and Adam Stites

SB Nation jack-of-all-trades James Brady

A guest picker from one of the 32 NFL blogs here at SB Nation

Fooch, our gambling guru from DraftKings Nation

A guest Good Dog of the week

But the one you should definitely listen to most is the last on that list. Each week we’ll have a different very Good Dog here to make their very good predictions. Here’s this week’s guest canine:

Meet the Good Dog of Week 1: Rosie

Rosie is one of Charles’ dogs and it goes without saying that she’s a very good girl. She was a rescue dog and no one knows exactly what breeds she’s mixed with, but it doesn’t get in the way of her innate goodness.

Good girl

Rosie will be opening the season by siding with her animal cohorts against all human mascots. In games where animals are playing animals, she mostly picked animals that have four legs and tend to stay on the ground, where it’s safer and treats are easily accessible.

However, there are some caveats in Week 1. She chose the Dolphins over the Ravens because somehow she had the foresight to know that Dolphins are fellow mammals. Rosie also picked the Rams to beat the Panthers — she and cats just don’t seem to get along. For the game between the Giants and the Cowboys, she rolled with the G-Men since giant treats are better than smaller ones. She decided to predict a tie for the Steelers and Patriots game, because no good dog can morally pick one of those two teams to win.

Let’s get to the picks

Here are all the predictions, with an asterisk: each expert has a chance to change a pick by Friday, in the case of an injury or other outside circumstances (like whatever’s going on with Antonio Brown). The guest picker from the NFL blogs this week is Levi Damien, the manager at our Raiders site, Silver and Black Pride.

Photo by: 2019 Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images Our panel of 10 experts — nine human, one animal — welcomes the new season with...

11/09/2019

This is one of the weirdest stories in a while.

Chris Jericho became AEW’s first world champion on Saturday night. Then he lost the belt. Not to a challengee, but to a limo and a Longhorn Steakhouse.

Jericho, who won the belt after winning at AEW All Out, lost the belt on Sunday. Police then allegedly found it on Wednesday morning — then it wasn’t clear if they had it. Now it’s back in Jericho’s possession.

Jericho filed a police report for the missing belt Sunday, claiming he left it in the limo while eating at a Longhorn Steakhouse. He even called for a worldwide manhunt to find the belt, saying he hired private investigators to track it down.

BREAKING NEWS! Champion has Title Belt stolen in grand heist.... pic.twitter.com/k6K4qxSnt9
— Chris Jericho () September 4, 2019

Then, on Wednesday morning police posted on Facebook that they had found the belt — even including a photo.

Update: Tallahassee Police Department finds 's stolen championship belt ... pic.twitter.com/2R0GCkrEiu
— Jeffrey Burlew () September 4, 2019

This being a story related to wrestling, naturally there was another twist.

The Case of the Missing Championship Belt takes another turn. The Tallahassee Police Department announces on Facebook it found the belt but hastily deletes the post. now says it can't confirm the belt was found and calls the case "open and active" ...
— Jeffrey Burlew () September 4, 2019

Then, late on Wednesday he announced that the belt was in his possession and that he, not police, had found it.

BREAKING NEWS! champion recovers the title belt HIMSELF, in less than 24 hours!! Awaits much deserved THANK YOU from the entire AEW fan base & roster... pic.twitter.com/6IsuiuCfIv
— Chris Jericho () September 5, 2019

What is happening?!

AEW shared the post by Tallahassee Police, which was active on their Twitter account — but the police department deleted theirs, but kept the case active. It’s unclear why at this time.

There’s a chance this was simply a procedural error and the department’s social media account jumped the gun in sharing the photo of the belt, but it’s also possible something else happened which hasn’t been shared with the public.

This was all fake, right?

No, it really wasn’t. Jericho might be using the theft of the belt to play it all up in character, but the belt really was missing per a police report filed in Tallahassee, Florida. Wrestling writer David Bixenspan confirmed with police that the report was accurate.

Essentially Jericho left the belt in his hired limo while he went to eat, and the driver returned to the Million Air (a private charter flight company) terminal in Tallahassee to exchange luggage after Jericho had accidentally grabbed the wrong bag. At some point during this round trip, the belt went missing.

You might be thinking “well, this could still all be fake as part of a story,” which is technically possible, though it would mean risking charges for filing a fake police report — which really wouldn’t be worth all the hassle.

Was it the AEW Championship belt?

It appears so, but it all depends on how AEW organized their belts.

In WWE, each champion is given two belts when they win a title. The “TV belt” is kept in the possession of WWE and it’s what you see during broadcasts. The company keeps it so it will be pristine and look perfect on camera.

Wrestlers are given a “travel belt,” which is nearly indistinguishable to the untrained eye. This allows performers to bring the belt with them to shows and appearances to maintain their mystique.

It’s unclear if AEW chose to adopt the same “TV belt, travel belt” structure. AEW’s TV programming doesn’t start until Oct. 2, so the assumption currently is the belt Jericho lost was the real, one-of-a-kind AEW belt.

What is the belt worth?

This is a closely guarded secret. We know the belt was constructed by legendary designer Dave Millican, who designs the majority of the belts in professional wrestling, as well as championship belts for the UFC. In a 2014 interview with CNN he explained that basic replica belts cost roughly $1,000, with top-end WWE replicas selling for as much as $10,000 — however, he declined to comment on how much real WWE belts cost.

It’s been speculated that true, real championship belts can be worth upwards of $300,000.

A redacted police report lists the belt as being worth between $20,000 and $100,000.

Here’s the heavily redacted report on the alleged theft of ’s championship belt. It says the belt was taken around 5:30 p.m. Sunday and reported stolen nearly two hours later. It lists as location of occurrence but has no other details ... pic.twitter.com/mDjxKxer6X
— Jeffrey Burlew () September 4, 2019

What happens now?

It’s clearly a very big bullet dodged by AEW that Jericho got the belt back. It’s likely they will now adopt a “TV belt, travel belt” structure moving forward if it wasn’t in place already.

If someone had the belt in their possession, it was going to be impossible to move it without raising suspicions. This was the first and only AEW belt ever made (the company hasn’t even started replica construction), meaning it would have needed to be fenced through the black market like a piece of art.

What did Arby’s have to say about all this?

Hey , Im all good. Save the cardboard to make your sandwiches... https://t.co/kOD58VnaFC
— Chris Jericho () September 4, 2019

This is one of the weirdest stories in a while. Chris Jericho became AEW’s first world champion on Saturday night. Then he lost the belt. N...

11/09/2019

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With the NFL kicking off Thursday, Hot Takedown employs a segment of “Model Talk” to assess some of the hot takes and speculation swirling around this season. Our NFL prediction model will be live Wednesday morning, but for a preview of the 2019 season, take a listen!

In partnership with Major League Baseball, the Atlantic League is experimenting with new technology and rules. Automated strike zones and the ability to steal first base are certainly bringing intrigue to the game, but there have been several unintended consequences. Kent Blackstone, shortstop for the Atlantic League’s Southern Maryland Blue Crabs, has experienced this all firsthand. Blackstone joins the show to bring a player’s perspective to what these changes could mean for the future of baseball.

Our Rabbit Hole celebrates Sara’s obsession with college fight songs. If you haven’t already, check out our interactive to see how your school’s fight song stacks up — clichéwise.

What we’re looking at this week:

Stay tuned for our 2019 NFL prediction model, which will be live Wednesday morning.

Attend a Southern Maryland Blue Crabs game and see these new rules in action.

Listen to our fave version of “Hail to the Victors,” the least cliché of all the fight songs.

FiveThirtyEight More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS | Embed Code With the NFL kicking off Thursday, Hot Takedown ...

11/09/2019

DeSean Jackson may seem like a pedestrian NFL wide receiver — very talented but far from spectacular in an era when wideouts regularly post 100-catch campaigns. Since he came into the NFL in 2008, Jackson is 17th overall in receptions and 15th in touchdown catches.

But Jackson, now with Philadelphia, has led the NFL four times in yards per receptions, including last year for the Buccaneers at age 32. That’s more than any other player in NFL history.36 And his electrifying speed seems to dramatically enhance his team’s overall passing game. Having Jackson in uniform has boosted the yards per pass play of his teams. And when he’s gone, his former teams have quickly lost these games. That bad news for Tampa Bay, Jackson’s team last year, which had the 23rd best season in the statistic since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.

Jackson’s newest quarterback noticed quickly that Jackson’s ability to take the top off the defense by getting behind the secondary makes the rest of the field easier to attack. Defenses have no choice but to play deeper.

“(This) takes pressure off all the other guys,” Carson Wentz said. “He’ll open up a lot of things underneath, we truly believe. … He just threatens defenders in a different way.”

Still, teams seem to have a hard time reconciling Jackson’s team value with his often underwhelming personal statistics. Since he broke into the league, he’s been on four squads, if you count his two stints with Philadelphia.

Jackson’s nomadic career makes it easier to quantify his impact. This effect can be seen at the team level when looking at how they perform during Jackson’s stay there compared with before as well as immediately after he leaves.

DeSean Jackson makes the offense better

Net yards gained per team passing attempt for DeSean Jackson’s teams, by when he was on the team

Yards per pass by when Jackson joined the team

Team

Years

Year before

First year

Last year

Year after

Philadelphia

2008-13

6

6.2

7.4

6.7

Washington

2014-16

5.7

6.7

7.6

6.5

Tampa Bay

2017-18

6.4

6.8

7.7

?

Net yards per pass attempt counts sacks as pass plays and subtracts those yards from the total passing yards.

Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com

The numbers in Jackson’s last year with his teams are especially noteworthy. Among all teams since 1970 — that’s out of 1,445 team seasons in the period — they rank 57th (2013 Philadelphia), 32nd (2016 Washington) and 23rd (2018 Tampa Bay) in yards per pass play.37 This means each one finished in the 95th percentile or better.

Each of Jackson’s teams immediately gained in passing efficiency once he arrived. And both Philadelphia and Washington significantly declined once he left, by nearly 1 yard net per pass play. To put that into context, ranking last year’s teams by that measure, just 0.9 net yards per attempt separated the ninth-ranked Colts (6.7) and the 25th-ranked Lions (5.8). Those teams were 10-6 and 6-10, respectively, which is not surprising given that teams that win the yards-per-pass-play stat by any margin have won about 74 percent of games since the merger, according to my reporting for The Wall Street Journal.

Of course, it’s possible that these teams became more prolific at passing coincidentally upon Jackson’s arrival, via coaching, play-calling, quarterback performance or the skills of the team’s other receivers. Jackson has struggled with durability during his career, missing nine games in his first stint with the Eagles, eight with Washington and six with the Buccaneers. So if there is a significant Jackson effect, it should be apparent when looking at his team’s performance when he plays versus when he’s inactive. And it is:

The splits on Jackson’s teams when he’s on and off the field

Stat

Without

With

Pass attempts

861

5,478

Pass yards

5,535

40,772

Net yards/pass play

5.63

6.56

Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com

Jackson’s active-and-inactive effect is even more pronounced than the difference before and after he joined his teams, at 1.03 yards per pass play.

Not surprisingly, given the impact of yards per pass play on wins and losses, Jackson’s teams with him inactive are 8-15 (.348 win percentage) compared with 75-76-2 (.497) when he plays.

It’s also possible that the effect Jackson seems to be creating for his team is really just a result of his own efficiency. After all, he’s averaged 9.7 yards on the 1,057 passes he’s been thrown in his career, counting incompletions.

But last year, Jackson’s ability to threaten defenses deep did seem to significantly benefit his team’s primary receiver. Mike Evans averaged a career-best 11.0 yards every time a pass was thrown his way, a startling 2.4 yards greater than his prior season high (in 2014). And Evans was thrown the ball 138 times, nearly twice as frequently as Jackson (74 targets). For Washington, Jackson’s tight end teammate Vernon Davis (2016) boosted his yards per target by over 3.0 yards from the prior year. And another Washington tight end, Jordan Reed, averaged 7.8 yards per target with Jackson from 2014 to 2016 and since has dropped to just 6.5. During Jackson’s last stint in Philly, Riley Cooper averaged 9.9 yards per target, 10th-best in the league that year. But the next year, without Jackson, that collapsed to 6.1. Cooper has been out of the NFL since 2015.

The question now is whetherJackson can be expected to maintain his fleet feet entering his age-33 season. The Eagles sure seem to think so, awarding him a three-year, $27.9 million contract this offseason with more than half the money guaranteed.

Jackson’s 18.9 yards per catch in his age-32 season was third-most since the merger (minimum 40 catches). The average age-33 season of the other seven receivers with more than 17.0 yards at age 32 was 53 catches for 769 yards. Two of them, Irving Fryar and Frank Lewis, subsequently made the Pro Bowl. Another, Steve Smith, had two 1,000-yard seasons. But unlike Jackson, none of these other seven receivers led the NFL in yards per reception even once, never mind a record-setting four times.

While there’s no way to know for certain the player the Eagles have, there’s little question about what Jackson has been so far in his career.

DeSean Jackson may seem like a pedestrian NFL wide receiver — very talented but far from spectacular in an era when wideouts regularly post ...

11/09/2019

Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images

One of the league’s best quarterbacks is walking away from the game at 29 years old.

Andrew Luck had yet to play in the 2019 NFL preseason due to a lower leg injury. Now he won’t take the field at all this fall — or in the future.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Saturday night that Luck had informed the Colts he will retire rather than play this season. The 29-year-old leaves behind a seven-year NFL career that saw him named to the Pro Bowl four times. He led Indianapolis to the playoffs in all four of the seasons in which he played a full 16-game slate.

The news of Luck’s retirement is a shocker. Colts fans caught wind of his impending announcement and voiced their displeasure with the decision during Saturday night’s preseason game against the Bears. Luck took to the podium at the Colts’ postgame press conference to officially announce his retirement shortly after the news broke.

Andrew Luck announces his retirement from the . https://t.co/PK9ADYBuOX

— Indianapolis Colts () August 25, 2019

In today’s league, where Tom Brady is still going strong at age 42 and Russell Wilson aims to play until he’s 45, it’s uncommon for an elite quarterback to retire before he reaches 30. But Luck also dealt with several serious injuries over an impressive career, including a shoulder malady that kept him from the field through the entire 2017 season and a lacerated kidney that cost him half of 2015. While he came back from that lost campaign to earn Comeback Player of the Year honors last season, he decided to leave the game behind before it could rob him of any more of his health.

“For the last four years or so, I’ve been in this cycle of ‘injury, pain, rehab, injury, pain, rehab,” Luck said at his press conference. “And it’s been unceasing, unrelenting, both in season and offseason, and I felt stuck in it. And the only way I see out is to no longer play football. It’s taken my joy of this game away.”

Luck is doing what’s right for him, even if he’s now a “what if” story

First things first: if this is what makes Andrew Luck happy, then it’s a good thing. He knows firsthand the extra mileage a decade-plus of high-level football (at Stanford and Indianapolis) has put on his body. If his decision is based on being mobile, active, and happy as he grows older, then good for him.

Rather than work through a calf injury that evolved into a high-ankle injury and deal with a full season of pain management, he leaves the NFL as one of its greatest “what if” scenarios.

The Colts drafted Luck with the No. 1 pick in 2012 to take over for longtime quarterback Peyton Manning. Luck found success right away, leading Indianapolis to an 11-5 record and a spot in the playoffs in each of his first three seasons. Then, injuries struck and Luck missed 26 games over the next three years.

Last season looked like the old Luck had returned. In 16 games, Luck threw for 4,593 yards while completing 67 percent of his passes and finding the end zone 39 times. In terms of both quarterback rating and QBR, it was his best season as a pro.

More importantly, he did that with a lineup of receivers whose only household name was T.Y. Hilton. Luck’s guidance elevated players like Chester Rogers, Donte Moncrief, and tight end Eric Ebron, who realized his potential with a 13-touchdown performance in his first season in Indianapolis. He’d caught 11 touchdowns in the four seasons that preceded it.

Luck was good, but his greatest skill was making everyone else around him better. In seven seasons, the Colts were 53-33 with Luck, and just 10-16 without him.

So how are the Colts going to replace that?

This sucks, sucks, suuuuuucks for the Colts

Luck’s abrupt departure makes Jacoby Brissett the team’s starting quarterback for the upcoming season. We saw how this turned out in 2017, when he went 4-11 as the team’s starter.

Brissett was thrown into the fire as a second-year quarterback that season, taking the reins just 15 days after being traded from New England to serve as Luck’s insurance policy. The Colts’ offensive line did him few favors; he was sacked a league-high 52 times and rarely had the opportunity to plant his feet and make plays downfield. That 2017 roster also had little star power behind Hilton.

The good news for Indianapolis is that Brissett should be better in 2019. His offensive line got two major upgrades in 2018 thanks to All-Pro Quenton Nelson (left guard) and upper-tier starter Braden Smith (right tackle), both of whom are headed into their second seasons. Those two foundational pieces will clear space for a much better tailback attack as well. In 2017, Brissett relied on a 34-year-old Frank Gore (3.7 yards per carry) and a rookie Marlon Mack (3.8).

This year, he’ll have a third-year Mack — coming off a 908-yard season when he averaged 4.7 yards per carry — along with the uber-efficient Jordan Wilkins and pass-catching chain-mover Nyheim Hines. That trio will provide plenty of yard-gaining support, both on the ground and in wheel routes, screens, and even lined up into the slot. Throw in a still-good Hilton, a leveled-up Ebron, plus whatever the club can get from free agent Devin Funchess and rookie Parris Campbell, and there’s reason to be optimistic about a stronger performance from Brissett.

But ... BUT:

There are only a handful of quarterbacks who wouldn’t be a downgrade from Andrew Luck. Brissett isn’t one of them. Let’s say he improves marginally thanks to the additions general manager Chris Ballard has made the past two seasons. Based on that 2017 performance, he’d throw for something like 3,500 yards and 20 touchdowns with a QB rating somewhere around the 88-92 range. That’s better, sure — but it’s still roughly what you’d get from a Jameis Winston or Andy Dalton type player.

Indianapolis can win with a passer of that caliber piloting the offense, but its ceiling just went from AFC title contender to one of the teams working to find a backdoor wild card spot.

In 2018, the Colts went on a tear with Luck, winning nine of their final 10 games to finish 10-6 and earn a spot in the playoffs. They would beat the Texans in the Wild Card Round before losing to the Chiefs in the Divisional Round. But the future was bright and they looked like a top contender heading into 2019.

Luck’s retirement changes things and shifts so much of the focus of the team’s new season on its defense. Darius Leonard was a revelation after joining the team as a second-round pick last year. Now he has to lead his unit on a superhuman effort to keep the Colts together without their QB1.

It’s possible to be happy for Luck finding peace while simultaneously cursing the football gods for the impact his decision will have on the team. That’s where I imagine some Colts fans are right now.

Luck is leaving the game that has dominated his life, calling it a career right at the time he should have been finding his peak. With injuries having taken their toll on his body and the rigors of rehab and NFL obligations weighing on his mind, he decided to play it safe and end his football career. He leaves a resume that includes four Pro Bowl appearances, a couple of collegiate All-American nods, and $97 million in contract earnings.

That’s the right decision for him, and no doubt one he didn’t take lightly. It’s also a brutal one for Indianapolis. Luck, for eight years, was the worthy heir to Manning — another quarterback who instantly pushed the Colts to relevance and served as his team’s heart and soul. Now, he’s hung up his helmet in search of a break from the grind of the gridiron and the tranquility of a less stressful life.

Back in early 2018, after Ballard saw his would-be coach Josh McDaniels renege on a contract and remain in New England at the Patriots’ offensive coordinator, he told the press the Pats-Colts rivalry was “back on.”

Without Luck, it might be time to flip that switch back down for the immediate future.

Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images One of the league’s best quarterbacks is walking away from the game at 29 years old. Andrew Luck ha...

11/09/2019

You don’t have to look hard at college football these days to find somebody, somewhere, talking about transfers. More players are switching teams each year, and more are seeking waivers that grant immediate eligibility at their new school — and it seems like just about everybody in the sport has an opinion about it.

“The issue with the transfer portal is we’ve gotten very liberal in giving people waivers, so, when we do that, it becomes free agency,” Alabama coach Nick Saban said last month. Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh, too, has cautioned against “free agency in college football.”

But even calling it “free agency” is understating the flurry of moves. Of the top 25 teams in the preseason coaches’ poll, as many as eight could start a transfer at quarterback later this month. Five of those eight quarterbacks47 were not active for their current team last season. For comparison, in the NFL — which, of course, has literal free agency — only about four of 32 starters weren’t on their current team last season.48

In the last decade, transferring in college football has increased in frequency. Some of this is due to changes in NCAA guidelines and the establishment of a transfer portal that facilitates contact between players and coaches. The NCAA’s evolving stance on immediate-eligibility waivers — which allowed Michigan’s Shea Patterson to play last season after transferring from Ole Miss, and Justin Fields to suit up for Ohio State this season — has expedited the transfer movement.

The optimal approach is to find an elite talent and develop him, as Clemson has done with Trevor Lawrence and Alabama with Tua Tagovailoa. But those who miss out on that chance sometimes turn to the next-best option — and it often works. Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley, entering his fifth year with the program, has coached the last two Heisman Trophy winners. Both were transfers, Baker Mayfield from Texas Tech and Kyler Murray from Texas A&M. It’s no longer only bench players who move schools in search of more playing time; athletes of all levels and abilities are taking advantage of their newfound mobility to develop their careers.

The impact of this wave of transfers is evident at both the college and professional level. Alabama and Georgia produced the current starting quarterbacks for four of the top five teams: the Crimson Tide’s Tagovailoa, the Bulldogs’ Jake Fromm, Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts and Ohio State’s Fields. Five of the 11 quarterbacks taken in the 2019 NFL draft were transfers.49

The college football programs themselves have also incentivized player movement. Teams’ increasing reliance on younger quarterbacks chases away the rest of the depth chart: If a freshman has a firm hold on the starting job, there’s no playing time available for three years, barring an injury. Lawrence’s emergence at Clemson in 2018, for example, sparked two departures — Kelly Bryant to Missouri and Hunter Johnson to Northwestern — while Georgia’s Fromm pushed out two more, Fields to Ohio State and Jacob Eason to Washington.

The search for playing time creates a ripple effect: Soon after Fields showed up at Ohio State, quarterback Tate Martell, previously expected to start in 2019, transferred to Miami. After Hurts arrived at Oklahoma, Sooners quarterback Austin Kendall left for West Virginia.

It’s not just at the highest level of the sport. In addition to the eight top 25 teams, Mississippi State (Tommy Stevens, formerly of Penn State), Virginia Tech (Ryan Willis, previously at Kansas) and Missouri (Bryant) are among the power-conference schools who have settled on or considered starting transfer quarterbacks.

But what gets lost in the drama of the quarterback carousel is that these transfers are rarely a magic solution. Yes, Mayfield and Murray were the two most successful transfer quarterbacks this century, based on passer ratings.50 But schools turning to a transfer to transform their program often end up disappointed.

Since 2000, 94 players have attempted at least 50 passes in a season for two different schools. Here we see the trend over time: five quarterbacks joined a new team between 2000 and 2004, while 13 transferred schools between 2005 and 2009. Twenty-eight quarterbacks transferred between 2010 and 2014, and 48 of those 94 have departed for greener pastures since 2015.

Of that group, 58 transferred to a Power 5 school. (This includes both quarterbacks who transferred from non-Power 5 schools as well as quarterbacks who transferred between Power 5 schools.) Nineteen Power 5 transfers improved their passer rating from their first stop to their second by at least 15 points, an impressive rise. But 12 more saw their passer rating drop by at least 15 points.51 The average change in passer rating is plus-4.9, and the average bump in completion percentage is 2 points, both modest upticks. However it may seem, it’s just not that easy to move towns, learn a new offense, adjust to new teammates and coaches and blossom into a completely different player.

Not every QB transfer is a program savior

Quarterbacks who threw at least 50 passes at another FBS school before transferring to a Power 5 program and how their passer rating changed, 2000-18

First school

Second school

Player

Name

Rating

Name

Rating

Change

Kyler Murray

Texas A&M

109.19

Oklahoma

203.26

+94.07

Baker Mayfield

Texas Tech

127.66

Oklahoma

189.39

+61.72

Russell Wilson

NC State

135.47

Wisconsin

191.78

+56.31

Ryan Mallett

Michigan

105.69

Arkansas

158.11

+52.42

Ryan Willis

Kansas

104.36

Virginia Tech

138.01

+33.65

Danny Etling

Purdue

110.95

LSU

144.36

+33.41

Scott McBrien

West Virginia

110.42

Maryland

142.04

+31.62

Greyson Lambert

Virginia

108.02

Georgia

139.50

+31.48

Matt Moore

UCLA

101.47

Oregon St.

131.69

+30.22

Jake Luton

Idaho

100.19

Oregon St.

129.33

+29.14

Steven Threet

Michigan

105.26

Arizona St.

133.41

+28.15

Ryan Finley

Boise St.

115.63

NC State

140.04

+24.40

Will Grier

Florida

145.61

West Virginia

169.18

+23.57

Gardner Minshew

East Carolina

127.10

Wash. St.

147.56

+20.46

Robert Marve

Miami (FL)

107.19

Purdue

125.91

+18.72

Tom Savage

Rutgers

123.45

Pittsburgh

138.24

+14.80

Allan Evridge

Kansas St.

104.44

Wisconsin

116.50

+12.06

Jake Rudock

Iowa

129.96

Michigan

141.50

+11.54

Everett Golson

Notre Dame

138.21

Florida St.

149.16

+10.94

R. Kovalcheck

Arizona

108.91

Vanderbilt

119.07

+10.16

Shea Patterson

Mississippi

141.22

Michigan

149.85

+8.63

Peyton Bender

Wash. St.

106.30

Kansas

113.66

+7.36

Brandon Mcllwain

South Carolina

99.15

California

104.41

+5.26

Tyler Murphy

Florida

121.05

Boston College

126.19

+5.14

Zach Maynard

Buffalo

124.42

California

128.36

+3.94

Joe Dailey

Nebraska

111.92

North Carolina

114.10

+2.18

Keller Chryst

Stanford

128.89

Tennessee

130.78

+1.90

A.J. Suggs

Tennessee

113.27

Georgia Tech

113.35

+0.08

Jon Beutjer

Iowa

129.16

Illinois

126.77

-2.39

Davis Webb

Texas Tech

138.37

California

135.63

-2.74

Danny O’Brien

Maryland

123.54

Wisconsin

120.73

-2.80

Patrick Towles

Kentucky

116.80

Boston College

113.16

-3.64

Pete Thomas

Colorado St.

121.17

NC State

115.07

-6.09

Wilton Speight

Michigan

132.20

UCLA

125.99

-6.21

Kevin Craft

San Diego St.

109.18

UCLA

101.72

-7.46

Sam Keller

Arizona St.

142.15

Nebraska

133.74

-8.41

Jeremiah Masoli

Oregon

130.56

Mississippi

121.11

-9.45

Mitch Mustain

Arkansas

120.53

USC

110.47

-10.06

Matt LoVecchio

Notre Dame

125.27

Indiana

114.24

-11.03

Jordan Webb

Kansas

118.11

Colorado

103.72

-14.39

Kenny Hill

Texas A&M

154.84

Texas Christian

138.36

-16.47

Jake Heaps

Brigham Young

114.13

Kansas

97.00

-17.13

Wes Lunt

Oklahoma St.

137.31

Illinois

119.54

-17.77

John O’Korn

Houston

123.90

Michigan

105.48

-18.42

Michael Machen

Kent St.

100.56

Baylor

82.09

-18.47

Clint Trickett

Florida St.

151.55

West Virginia

132.40

-19.15

Dayne Crist

Notre Dame

127.00

Kansas

96.52

-30.48

Brock Berlin

Florida

161.09

Miami (FL)

128.65

-32.45

Darell Garretson

Utah St.

137.68

Oregon St.

103.97

-33.71

Kyle Bolin

Louisville

141.56

Rutgers

98.21

-43.34

Jarrett Stidham

Baylor

198.95

Auburn

144.35

-54.60

Brandon Harris

LSU

133.86

North Carolina

72.34

-61.52

Source: Sports-Reference.com

Beyond sheer volume, this year’s group of transfer quarterbacks is especially fascinating because it might also be the most talented bunch the sport has seen. Jalen Hurts’s father was not far off when he speculated after the 2017 season that Hurts could be the “biggest free agent in college football history.” The quarterbacks potentially debuting in new uniforms next weekend include a national champion in Hurts and three former five-star recruits (Fields, Washington’s Eason and Northwestern’s Johnson). This could have a major effect. Oklahoma does not need Hurts to do much more than his numbers would already indicate. Even an average 4.9-point bump in passer rating from his career 148.8 would put him among last season’s 20 most efficient quarterbacks in the major conferences.

No matter what becomes of this year’s crop of transfers, schools will surely keep swapping quarterbacks in the future. Transfers can be good for the coaches, who find a one- or two-year solution to their quarterback vacancies. After two of his quarterbacks transferred, Arkansas coach Chad Morris replaced them this past offseason with graduate transfers Ben Hicks, originally at Southern Methodist, and Nick Starkel, from Texas A&M. “As I’ve shared all along, we are always in the quarterback market. It doesn’t matter — we are always in that market,” he said last winter. And it appears quarterback reps are going to remain scarce at Clemson, for example, with Heisman co-favorite Lawrence only a sophomore.

Still, high expectations will follow a transfer anywhere. It would be hard to ask Hurts to replicate the Heisman-winning seasons of Mayfield or Murray. Expecting Fields, a sophomore with 39 career passing attempts, to equal what NFL first-round draft pick Dwayne Haskins did last season is also a stretch.

But that doesn’t mean those teams won’t try. “If Jalen does win the starting job from everything I’ve seen, I’m not sure there’s anything we’ve done before I wouldn’t do with him,” Oklahoma’s Riley said in a radio interview last month. Defenses should buckle up. The twists and turns are just getting started.

You don’t have to look hard at college football these days to find somebody, somewhere, talking about transfers. More players are switching ...

Sport4tomorrow

11/09/2019

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