19/10/2026
"The 25% worst performers thought they were better than more than 60% of all participants."
Why are there so many slow swimmers in the fast lane? In 1999, psychologists Justin Kruger and David Dunning tested people on logic, grammar and humour, then asked them how well they thought they did. The 25% worst performers thought they were better than more than 60% of all participants. Too little skill to do it, and too little skill to see it.
That research was later popularised as a curve: confidence against knowledge. Beginners overrate themselves, experts tend to underrate themselves.
Mount Stupid: gain a little ability and confidence rises sharply. These are the slow swimmers in the fast lane. They think they went from slow straight to fast. Then you learn how much there is to learn, and confidence drops into the valley of despair. That is where most people quit. Keep learning and confidence comes back, never to the height of Mount Stupid, but your competence keeps growing.
Where are you on the curve, as a swimmer or as a coach?
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Source: Kruger J, Dunning D (1999) J Pers Soc Psychol 77:1121-1134.
