10/21/2026
"Housing market in a deep freeze." "Sales down 11%." "Record low."
Deep freeze? Hardly. Headlines sell, but they don't tell the whole story.
You have probably seen these headlines this week. Some of the numbers are real. What is missing is context. So I pulled 20 years of San Juan County MLS data and read the actual September reports. Here is what I found.
What the "down 11%" headline is really about
That number is national pending contracts (new deals signed in September), down 11.3% from last year. NAR's pending index did hit its lowest reading since it began in 2001. That is worth watching. But it is not the same as homes sold.
Actual closed sales nationally in September? Down 2.2% from last year, at a pace of about 4 million homes a year. The national median price rose to $417,500, the 39th straight month of year-over-year gains. Days on market: 33, the same as last September. First-time buyers made up 31% of sales, up from last year. Slow, yes. Halted, no.
Closer to home, regionally
Greater Albuquerque closed sales were down about 12% versus last September, but the median price was up 1.3% and homes that sold went under contract in a median of 20 days. Inventory is about 3.5 months. Fewer sales, firm prices.
Here in San Juan County
September 2026 had 73 closed residential sales, up 11% from 66 last September and right on our 20-year September average of 73. Homes sold faster, with a median of 16 days on market compared with 31 a year ago, and at 99.5% of list price. From January through September, closings are up 6% (642 vs 608) and the median price is up 4% to $301K.
One honest note: September's median price was $290K, below last September's unusually high $325K. Month-to-month medians bounce around with the mix of homes that close. The year-to-date trend is still up. Even in September 2008, in the middle of the housing crash, 98 homes closed here.
Are rates really that big of a factor?
Yes, they matter. The 30-year average hit 7.40% on October 15, the highest since late 2023, after the Fed raised its rate in September. That slows new contracts, and I expect a softer fall nationally.
But rates are not the whole story in our market. September 2012 had rates near 3.5% and only 52 local closings. September 2023 had rates above 7% and 73. Local jobs, inventory, and life events (moves, family changes, retirements) drive our market as much as the rate sheet does.
What this means for you
Buyers: less competition and more room to negotiate on price, repairs, or concessions.
Sellers: buyers are still out there, but they are focused on the monthly payment. Pricing, condition, and presentation matter more now than they did two years ago.
Slower is not stopped. A shifting market rewards a plan, not panic. If you want to know what these numbers mean for your home or your next move, send me a message. I am happy to walk through it with you.
Jodi Brown, Associate Broker
Real Estate PROS | 505-588-7767
Sources: NAR Existing-Home Sales and Pending Home Sales reports (Sept 2026), Freddie Mac PMMS, SWMLS data reported by WelcomeHomeABQ, SJCMLS closed residential sales (11 San Juan County communities, 2006 through Oct 19, 2026). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.