09/05/2026
Dapper Dan Picks:
2026-27 Season Results: 3-1 +2.28 units
Tough card- especially week 1. This is the first time I can remember I didn’t have any 12pm games picked. But we’re being more selective! Keeping these writeups this week short and sweet- based on the coaching and personal changes and edges from those. The stats from last year don’t hold that much weight with so many players moving around.
Week 1 Adds: (More tomorrow)
Clemson +10.5 (-119)
Clemson ML (+310) .25x
Boise State/Oregon Over 51.5 (-110)
UCLA ML (-124)
Auburn -6.5 (-124)
Duke/Tulane under 51.5 (-104)
Clemson +10.5 (-119) Risking 1.19 units to win 1 units
Clemson ML (+310) Risking .25 units to win .78 units
The headline of this game - Chad Morris - reunites with Dabo Sweeney to turn this offense around to its first modern explosive era, over a decade ago when they coached together at Clemson from 2011-14, went 41-11, won the 2011 ACC Title, and set a school record in 2012 with 41 points per game. Last year, Clemson suffered from horrible play calling on offense and their defense was strong in Tom Allen’s first year - and they always get better. Dabo’s program always recruits and brings in better talent, and COACHES them to being better then most teams. New QB, Christopher Vizzina showed his potential in his one start last year (when Klubnick was injured) against SMU going 29-42, for 317 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs. All I hear about is Lane Kiffin and all the transfers- how short is the media memory? Dabo has this game circled after last year's opener and there is no way in hell he is going to let this be a blowout. They could win outright.
Boise State/Oregon Over 51.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
We have two offenses both with strong returning QBs, Dante Moore and Maddux Madsen - who already faced this Oregon team back in 2024 where he struggled but it was a high scoring close game 37-34. Both teams retain their co-offensive coordinators so I don’t think much will change schematically and they should both put up points since last year Boise State averaged 30 ppg and Oregon 37 ppg. Oregon may even put up 50 themselves so I'm not too worried about the strong defense returning - Boise should put up a little fight with strong returning backfield.
UCLA ML (-124) Risking 1.24 units to win 1 units
This is an exciting program overhaul, new head coach Bob Chesney comes to his first REAL football program after grinding his way up from the bottom. Turning around a D-III school from 2010-12, then a D-II school from 2013-17, then FCS Holy Cross from 2018-23, then James Madison in 24-25 where he went 21-6 and at every program he made significant improvements to every team. He gets an experienced Nico Lamaleava and I think they’ll catch a lot of teams off-guard - like he did at James Madison. Cal is also under a full reset - letting go of Justin Wilcox after 9 years and hiring new HC Tosh Lupoi, who has always led strong defenses as a DC- like Oregon last year, but this will be his first time being a head coach. Their offensive coordinator is a wild card as he is a “young high profile hire” but has no real experience calling plays and he was an assistant QB coach the last 3 years at TB and an Oregon offensive analyst before that. I think he will struggle and UCLA pulls off the win.
Auburn -6.5 (-124) Risking 1.24 units to win 1 units
This is another exciting “program migration” as Alex Golesh comes with the majority of his coaching staff from USF where they led one of the most explosive offenses - ranking 5th in ypp. This was no fluke either- he has led elite high tempo offenses all over the college football dating back to 2020 with UCF where they ranked 2nd in ypp, then he went to Tennessee for 2 years where he ranked 9th in ypp then 1st in his 2nd year. Then at USF where he spent the last 3 years, it took a little time to develop as in year 1 he was 68th in ypp, 77th in his 2nd year, but 5th in his last year there in 2025. It shouldn’t take long to develop at Auburn considering the much better talent they will have and that they are bringing Byrum Brown from USF too who threw for 3100+ yards, 28 passing TDS, 1000+ rush yards and 14 rush TDs. But they kept DJ Durkin as their DC who has proven to be one of the best DC’s in the SEC as he migrated from Florida, to Michigan, to Texas A & M, to now Auburn and a good majority of those defenses were Top 20, if not Top 10. Baylor on the other side is returning less than 30% of snaps ranking 107th nationally so they are a very green team and QB Sawyer Roberston is gone and in comes DJ Lagway…..who sucks ... .ha. Auburn wins in blow out fashion!
Duke/Tulane under 51.5 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
Although Tulane was an exciting team last year going 11-3 - their coaching staff all took off and the replacements do not look good. Will Hall takes over as HC where he really struggled 2021-2024 at Southern Miss. Their two coordinators are very inexperienced as well and they lost their starting QB Retzlaff and only returned 25% of their total yards on offense from last year. Duke lost Mensah, and a WR trio that combined for 2,460 yards. They bring in San Jose Sate transfer Walker Eget whose numbers are not impressive. Although Duke’s defense struggled last year, I think Manny Diaz and Jonathan Patke’s impressive defenses resumes will bounce back this year and they will be a top defensive again like in 2024 when Patke was a Broyles Award nominee as Duke ranked 2nd in TFL, 2nd in turnovers, 5th in sacks, and 6th in ypp. This should be a low scoring affair.
