The Vegas Nightmare

Gamblers Think Team, Not QB for Santa Clara Clash

Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is destined to reach the Hall of Fame, and may be looking at his last, best chance to return to the Super Bowl when the Packers visit the San Francisco 49ers to decide the NFC title on Sunday evening. "Rah-jahs" will square-off against Jimmy Garoppolo, a QB whose championship mettle is still untested in the NFL. But the 49ers are decided favorites to earn a trip to Miami at (-320) and (-7.5) on the spread, thanks to a fantastic defense, a deep offensive backfield, and a recent head-to-head outing at Levi's Stadium in which San Francisco clobbered Green Bay 37-8.

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Tennessee a Popular Pick ATS at Arrowhead

It's a tale of 2 gambling lines at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. Kansas City opened as a solid favorite and remains a (-320) moneyline pick to win the AFC Championship Game. Point-spread speculators have reached a different consensus, however, shrinking an opening 10-point line down to just (-7.5) with heavy action on the visiting Tennessee Titans to cover. Host quarterback Pat Mahomes is considered among the very best of the NFL, but an opposing ground game featuring Derrick Henry has bettors believing the Titans will keep it close on a cold Missouri day even as the Chiefs are more likely to win and advance to Super Bowl LIV.

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Public Sides With LSU as Tiger Bowl Settles CFP

Last season's Super Bowl was an example of Las Vegas holding firm on a prediction, hoping for a windfall if gamblers guessed wrong. Monday night's national title clash between the Clemson Tigers and LSU Tigers is yet another case of the same syndrome. If lines were fully adjusted, Ed Orgeron's team might be a 10-point favorite by now, as high-rollers flock to the SEC winners ATS and on a 1-to-2 moneyline. But many odds-makers are sticking with the cautious point spread of LSU (-5.5), content to handle fewer wagers on the Clemson Tigers. The bookies will earn a bundle if Trevor Lawrence and the defending FBS champions pull off another upset in the College Football Playoff, or pay out on a whole lot of bet slips if LSU claims the throne. Don't be surprised to see ordinarily-neutral fans cheering for Joe Burrow and Louisiana State to prevail in the Superdome. It's nothing personal against Clemson, but an LSU championship would literally be money.

https://thevegasnightmare.com/monday-silver/

Betting Lines "Frozen" For Chilly Lambeau Battle

Lambeau Field is primed to be a “frozen tundra” once again, and handicappers are evenly split on which team's way any funny bounces of the ball will go. Green Bay opened as a (-3.5) favorite to beat the visiting Seattle Seahawks in Sunday night's NFC Divisional Round playoff, and while the spread has ticked slightly in the Pack’s direction at (-4), there's little other Las Vegas line movement to speak of. Maybe there’s a reluctance to admit another coach could abide the Packers a higher ceiling than Mike McCarthy could at this stage. That’s all the more prescient now that Jerry Jones has hired the storied skipper in Big D. But there’s no question that the paradigm has changed, and 13-3 W/L records tend to speak for themselves. Aaron Rodgers is still magnificent in the clutch, and Seattle has a whole lot of injuries hampering its postseason.

https://thevegasnightmare.com/sunday/

Gamblers See Big Picture on Chiefs-Texans

It wouldn't have been surprising to see NFL gamblers flock to Houston as a fat-payoff underdog at Kansas City this Sunday. Deshaun Watson and the Texans prevailed 31-24 in an October meeting at Arrowhead as Carlos Hyde's rushing total dwarfed the entire KC backfield. But with a double-digit sample size of outcomes in the bag, handicappers seem convinced Houston is in trouble headed into the Divisional Round. Kansas City has posted a superior record and superior yardage totals, and put up excellent numbers on defense in December. Action on the Chiefs has moved a 7-point spread to (-9.5) for the Missouri hosts while the Over expands to (51.5).

https://thevegasnightmare.com/sunday/

Old Handicapping Guard Makes Final Stand on Ravens

"The NFL is a passing league!" has been the mantra of "experts" for half a century. But as the 54th battle for a Lombardi Trophy draws near, maybe The Pope will be proven right - pigskin is meant to be a running game. Baltimore's MVP shoo-in Lamar Jackson operates as a nimble gun-slinger, punishing run-conscious teams with long TD passes. On other downs the QB is an all-time great athlete running an NCAA-bred option attack which dwarfed AFC rivals in rush yards in 2019. Add-in a stubborn defense, strong special teams, and the coaching of John Harbaugh, and the Ravens are a 14-2 top seed and a (-10) point favorite in Saturday night's Divisional playoff vs the visiting Tennessee Titans. But wait - the Titans moneyline (+315) is getting all kinds of action and moved from longer than 4-to-1 on opening consensus. Seems there's an old guard that just won't accept how the QB position is changing...and believes Jackson and Baltimore are fool's gold.

https://thevegasnightmare.com/saturday/

Conflicting Voices Hold Line Steady in Santa Clara

The national pundit's narrative for Saturday's NFC Divisional Round playoff game in Santa Clara is that the 49ers will out-muscle the Vikings in the trenches. That's strange, because Minnesota just out-played New Orleans on the LOS after handicappers said it wouldn't happen. No one's shouting it out loud, but perhaps it's the ongoing mistrust in Viking QB Kirk Cousins that has the Norsemen at (+7) on t he spread with San Francisco a (-300) favorite on the moneyline. In contrast to the veteran Minnesota signal-caller, 49er QB Jimmy Garoppolo is a fresh face with an intimidating 13-3 supporting cast. However, it should be noted that 2 of San Fran's 3 losses have come at Levi's Stadium.

https://thevegasnightmare.com/saturday/

Sun Belt Powerhouse Looms Large in Prime-Time Bowl

Miami of Ohio enjoyed a fine closing stretch, beating Ohio to highlight a 5-game winning streak and later defeating Central Michigan 26-21 in the MAC Championship Game. Nothing escapes Las Vegas handicappers, though, at least not after the fact. The RedHawks also turned in some troubling performances in November including a 3-point win over the FBS's worst team, the Akron Zips. Louisiana-Lafayette of the Sun Belt Conference is a (-550) favorite and giving (-14) points to Miami-OH in Monday night's LendingTree Bowl in Alabama, thanks to the 10-3 Ragin' Cajuns racking-up 6 straight autumn wins of their own before falling short in a 7-point loss to Appalachian State in the league title game.

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Sharks Swim to Seattle...Then the Market Corrects Itself

High-rolling speculators were quick to capitalize on an underdog's opening moneyline for the Seattle Seahawks this Sunday. After all, Seattle's Wild Card Round opponent is the Philadelphia Eagles, winners of perhaps the weakest division in the NFL. Russell Wilson is a playoff veteran and a Super Bowl champion, while Philadelphia QB Carson Wentz is a newcomer to the postseason. Still, after betting action turned the Seahawks into a (-120) favorite at some sportsbooks, other gamblers decided the Eagles were worth lower-risk bets to beat a visiting Seattle club fraught with injury problems. Markets have now evened-out with each team in minus-ML range and spreads appearing on both sides of a pick'em deadlock for a battle with a (45) point Over/Under.

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Old Gold Hugely Popular Favorite vs Norsemen

Bookmakers felt that the Minnesota Vikings had a decent shot at upsetting the New Orleans Saints when the clubs meet in the NFC Wild Card Round on Sunday afternoon at the Superdome. Gamblers have other ideas. New Orleans opened as less than a 1-to-3 underdog but the Saints' line has shrunk to (-450) as moneyline wagers flood in on the NFC South champions. Drew Brees would be expected to out-gun Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins under normal circumstances, especially with a crazy indoor crowd to buoy the host defense. But it's a sign of how few NFL fans trust Cousins in a big game that the Vikings' point spread has swelled to (+8).

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Pats Face Gloomy Home Game Thanks to Miami

Saturday's prime-time Wild Card kickoff between the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans is bizarre for a few reasons. No one expected the Pats to blow a 1st-round bye against the woeful Miami Dolphins last week, and Bill Belichick couldn't even muster an "on to Foxboro" once reality set in. Additionally this is a freak scenario in which the Patriots (-5) may wish for better weather at Gillette Stadium. Dark clouds and cold rain are possible, upping the degree-of-difficulty for aching veterans Tom Brady and Julian Edelman. Meanwhile the Titans have taken the unorthodox step of swapping a dual-threat QB (Marcus Mariota) with a game-manager in Ryan Tannehill, and the move has paid dividends for Tennessee (+180) which won 4 in a row in late autumn.

https://thevegasnightmare.com/saturday/