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02/07/2021

Super Bowl LV Is Here. Hug It. Hold It. And Love It.

2/7/21

For two weeks we’ve known the matchup. For two weeks we’ve gossiped. And Super Bowl Sunday is here. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are looking to become the first team to go back to back since 2003-2004 New England Patriots. Tom Brady and that 04 Pats team beat the Andy Reid led Eagles.

Super Bowl LV is the first of its kind. Never has the host city for the Super Bowl made it to the game. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers become the league's first. And what a terrible year for it to happen. Corona sure sucked the life out of stadiums all year, But Raymond James Stadium is set to safely allow 25,000 fans in the Super Bowl. Which will make tonight's game the least attended Super Bowl ever. Early week weather looked sketchy, although this morning looks like kickoff will have clear skies with a steady breeze and 60 degrees.

Patrick Mahomes is undoubtedly awesome. I don’t find him as lovable as a lot of America does. And I’m not sure it’s even his fault as to why I’m not a fan of his. I think it has more to do with his weapons. Hill and Kelce are always wide open. It feels like they cheat when you watch them. Mahomes is only getting more confident with every snap. His pocket presence is elite for his age. Andy Reid has solidified himself as one of the all time great offensive minds.

We all know by now that TB12 is the G.O.A.T. and all week it was nauseating listening to the Max Kellermans of the world drum awful takes like “ If Brady wins, is he the greatest team athlete of all time?” Or “What if Tom loses the game for the Bucs, would they move on from the 43 year old?” I get why shows and media of that form exists, I just don’t understand why we all can’t just marvel and witness the true greatness that Tom is for however fu***ng long we have left with him.

I just want to list some insane playoff stats. Brady has started 44 playoff games. Joe Montana, often still mentioned as the greatest to ever do it, had 16 career playoff wins and seven losses. Tom has 17 more victories than Montana. Brady has a 4,909 yard lead over Manning. 2020 NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers tied Joe Montana with 45 career playoff touchdowns this year! Now Rodgers is only 35 touchdowns behind Brady.

Tom Brady has played only one season in the NFC and is third all time in playoff wins against NFC opponents with 9. Brady will be suiting for his 10th Super Bowl. Tom didn’t start his rookie year, and Brady missed the 08 campaign with a torn up knee. So Brady’s had 19 attempts at making a Super Bowl. Steph Curry has a worse chance at making a three pointer in a game than Tom does of making it to the fu***ng Super Bowl.

1 Kansas City Chiefs (8-10 ATS) -3.0
@ 5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-8 ATS) O/U 56

My Pick:
Tampa's top ten defense has shored up in the playoffs. If Tampa can get after Mahomes the way they did Rodgers with five or less rushers Mahomes may be on the move and disruption is the best chance for slowing the Chiefs down. Tom plays close Super Bowls. The average margin of victory in Tom’s previous nine Super Bowls is 4.8 points. The over at 56 is the 11th Super Bowl with a total over 50. The under is 7-3 in games with a total of 50 or more. Brady is 5-4 on the under.

I Like Tampa +3 and the UNDER 56. Bet with your head not over it.

01/24/2021

One Game Away From A Shot To Restore Title Town.

01/24/21

Here we go again, The NFC title is on the line, and this time it goes through Lambeau. The red hot Packers are the only thing that stands in front of the Buccaneers from becoming the first team to host the Super Bowl.

Tom Brady, the winningest postseason QB of all time, and it's not even close. Prepares for his first conference championship away from New England. Today's contest marks the G.O.A.T.’s 14th conference championship game. He’s played in 19 seasons… And to anyone who thinks Tom is washed, please go ahead and show me how the f**k 4,633 yards 40 Touchdowns and 12 picks is washed.

I very much doubt that this rematch will look anything like the week 6’s game where Tampa handed the Green and Gold their first loss of the season. Now this Buccaneer team is currently firing on all cylinders after their trouncing of the W.F.T, and their upset over the Saints.

Tom and Aaron was supposed to happen in a Super Bowl and that game and all of it’s items would’ve immediately been rushed to Canton. As that would’ve been the all time Quarterback Super Bowl. I think all decent football fans will gladly settle for an NFC Championship.

Cornerback Tramon Williams, has the chance to make NFL history as being the first player to ever suit and play for two teams in a single postseason as Tramon played last week in Buffalo for the Ravens. Kevin King may not be able to go, and Tramon may be able to provide a bit of help in slowing down the loaded Bucs offense.

Running backs Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette have finally turned into a dynamic duo as Fournette struggled all year to find his role with his new team. The Bucs defense is all that and more in my opinion. They just feel to play at a different speed then their opponents. Something sub freezing temperatures may alter in today’s contest.

The Pack needs to remain perfect in the turnover category. And hopefully they can steal one, or two.

5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-8 ATS) O/U 53
@ 1 Green Bay Packers (11-6 ATS) -3.5
My Pick:
I love you NFL I wish you weren’t fleeting so fast. Had to get that in there somewhere.

Ok the battle of the Bays for the NFC. I love the Packers in this spot. The 3.5 is supposed to trick you. It’s saying but more than a field goal for Tom Brady is good money. No forget that old data. Take the Pack -3.5, and take the UNDER.

01/16/2021

Round Two, Game One.

01/15/21

The Green Bay Packers are NFC North champs once again. 13-3 in back to back seasons is nothing to sneeze at. If you told any die hard cheesehead that Matt LaFleur was going to be 26-6 after two seasons, they would all say that would be pretty fu***ng optimistic. The end of the McPawsitive era was as ugly as it can get when your franchise has been riding the coattails off back to back first ballot hall of fame QBs.

McCarthy completely lost that locker room in the end and boy it showed. You could see the stress of Rodgers reciting the play call to his teammates in the huddle. It showed in their lack of discipline and slow starts. It was so painfully obvious that as a fan you became worn and dulled of your football joy. Lafleur has jolted and lit that spark spark that had been missing with pure vengeance.

The Packers are not elite at every position, but when it gets this late in the season no team is going to be perfectly well rounded. Every team will have its injuries, and deficiencies. It only matters how you match up against the sole team you face.

The NFL and football in general is a very week to week sport, more than any of the other major four. The playoffs are even more singularly focused. Lafleur got a taste last year and suffered his first head coaching playoff loss to the 49ers, a week after winning his first postseason game against Seattle. That was last year this week it’s 100% Rams. Saturday's contest kickoff is at 3:25 PM on FOX.

The Los Angeles Rams went bird hunting during Wild Card weekend and snagged themselves a Seahawk. Aaron Donald and that defense roughed Russ up and Jalen Ramsy was all up under D.K. Metcalf's skin. The Rams frustrated an experienced bonafide superstar in Russel Willson. If anyone in the NFC is equipped to take down the Green and Gold I fear it to be Los Angeles.

Sean McVay is one hell of a coach that coaches to win every game. Cliche sure, but the man is all football all the time. LaFleur and McVay shared time together under Mike Shanahan during the red lobsters run with the former R words. But their working relationship continued after Sean got the Rams job. McVay hired Lafleur to be the team's OC. McVay was a true G when he let LaFleur move on to Tennessee where his success there landed him his role in Green Bay. LaFleur has the opportunity to make that decision McVay made a few years ago bite em in the ass. To let Lafleur make a lateral move to the Titans is a pretty solid move by a guy knowing what a talented football mind that he had in the building to walk right out the door.

McVay will find the weakness in the packers defense and exploit it over and over again. Lafleur and McVay are at the top of the league in the use of pre snap motion, always forcing the issue and attacking on offense.

The Packers earned a much needed bye week after securing the one seed two Sundays ago against the now extinguished Bears. Rodgers’ MVP effort this year will be in need again tomorrow night. It will most certainly need him to be perfect. If Rodgers is able to manipulate and control the mental game within the game, as he so often does this might not be as scary as it feels right now. I expect a good amount of action in the run game to try and neutralize the interior pressure from Donald. Big AJ Dillion could have a feature in tomorrow's run game. I expect Lafleur to get the ball in the hands of 17, and 33 quick and often. There’s no reason to shy away from the elite talent of Jones and Adams.

6 Los Angeles Rams (10-7 ATS) O/U 45.5
@ 1 Green Bay Packers (10-6 ATS) -6.5

My Pick:
I’ve been heavy on Green Bay and the Rams all year. I don’t like this number though. 6.5 feels like too much. If it was week 13 and this was the line I don’t think it would feel as large as it does to me today. I like the Packers to win and move on, and I feel they could win big. It just doesn’t feel likely, Rams are well coached and rugged. The only two things that scare me. Rams +6.5

01/10/2021

Another Week 17 Rematch.

1/10/21

As Super Wild Card weekend commences, a battle between two AFC foes kickoff at 7:05 PM on NBC.

Cleveland and Pittsburgh played week 17 to wrap up the 2020 season where the Steelers had already secured their spot in the Playoffs and couldn’t get any benefit to winning, so they rested everybody. So that game didn’t really matter. The Browns came out, took care of business and for the first time in 18 years the Browns are back in the Playoffs.

18 years and five days to be exact. That January 5th 2002 game was played against… the Steelers. The Browns lost a tough one 36-33 in Pittsburgh. The 94 season the Steelers exhausted the Browns in the Divisional round in Pittsburgh as well.

The people of Cleveland don’t need me to remind them that Pittsburgh has owned them for a quarter century, it’s just fun to look at the Browns history.

Mike Tomlin with a healthy Big Ben, and a hell of a lot of lucky breaks waltzed to an 11-0 start. At 12-4 they won their division and basically by week 14 had no shot of getting home field, I felt the Steelers coasted the rest of the way and were in no way peaking at the right time.

The Browns of course can’t catch a break as their facility was shut down for the majority of the week due to Covid-19. Stefanski and a few other staffers have had positive tests and won’t be available. Starting strong safety Ronnie Harrison has been cleared after a series of negative tests. Starting corners Denzel Ward, and Kevin Johnson are inactive against the Steelers strong passing attack who gets tight end Eric Ebron back from the Covid list.

Ben Roethlisberger is no longer the same guy, but between Rivers, and Eli. There’s no doubt in my mind that the beaten and battered Roethlisberger still has enough in the tank to guide the Steelers to the Super Bowl if their defense is classic steel curtain.

6 Cleveland Browns (6-10 ATS) O/U 47.5
@ 3 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6 ATS) -6

My Pick:
It is what it is. This is just how it goes in Cleveland. I feel terrible for Browns fans. 2020 was a great football season. I’m rooting my heart off for the Browns, and I’m betting my ass off on the Steelers. Pittsburgh -6

01/10/2021

Who Dat? Da Bears, Maybe

1/9/21

DA BEARS are heading into the Mercedes Benz Superdome in New Orleans to face the fully restocked Saints. Kickoff is at 3:40pm CT on CBS.

The Saints three headed monster of Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara and Drew Brees will finally play together again against the 8-8 Trubisky led Bears.

Nagy has to be happy to be back in the playoffs. After starting 5-1 and losing six straight the seat warmer was in full effect before Thanksgiving. 8-8 and the Super Wild Card weekend was enough for the Bears to sneak in after losing a win and in week 17 game.

7 Chicago Bears (8-8 ATS) O/U 47.5
@ 2 New Orleans Saints (9-7 ATS) -10
My Pick:
As a Packers fan....F**K THE BEARS

Saints -10

01/09/2021

Scorching Hot Ravens Look To Repay Titans For Last Year's Upset.

1/9/21

The AFC South champs are taking on the Baltimore Ravens at Nissan Stadium at 12:05 Sunday on ESPN.

Tennessee won the division for the first time under 3rd year head coach Mike Vrabel. The Titans were led by a powerful and explosive offensive attack. Running back Derrick Henry, first team ALL PRO selection, led the NFL in carries, yards and touchdowns. (378, 2,027, 17). Henry is the 8th player to ever crack the 2000 yard marker first since Adrian Peterson back in 2012. Peterson took home MVP honors that season, yet Henry seems all but forgotten in the league's MVP talks this season.

Reigning MVP Lamar Jackson has the Ravens playing their best football all year. Baltimore is peaking just at the right time. The Ravens had the NFL’s best rushing attack totaling 3,071 yards. Baltimore’s offense is still predicated on the run game.

These two squads are so similar. Sunday’s contest between the Titans and Ravens should be a hell of a physical game. Neither of these teams play well from behind. They just aren’t designed to fall behind early.

Ryan Tannehill continued to develop and blossom in Tennessee. He had a career high 33 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions.

Baltimore looks to take advantage of a shaky Titans secondary, and the NFL’s 32 ranked defense on third down.

Tennessee beat the Ravens in Baltimore in week 11 30-24 in overtime. Henry broke free for the game winning score.

Harbaugh and Vrabel had a bit of a situation postgame, when John brushed off Vrabel for a postgame handshake.

5 Baltimore Ravens (10-6 ATS) -3
@ 4 Tennessee Titans (7-9 ATS) O/U

My Pick: Baltimore has been playing some of the best football currently. I do think they pose a lot of challenges on offense, but I also think they are giant frauds.

When Lamar is exposed again for not being an efficient drop back passer, where does Baltimore go from there?

Tennessee is in a bit of a let down spot after they made it one game shy of the Super Bowl. Offseason expectations were raised in Nashville, and the goal of winning a Super Bowl isn’t as far fetched. I Think this game plays exactly like the last two times these teams met. Titans +3

01/09/2021

The Washington Football Team Will Host The Tampa Bay Buccaneers Saturday Evening For Super Wild Card Weekend.

01/08/21

2015 was the last time the Football Team made the Playoffs. They won the NFC East in 15 and hosted the Green Bay Packers. The Packers outplayed the then Redskins 35-18. It was the former R words first divisional title since 99.

The NFC East champs had one crazy year. Yes they went 7-9. It wasn’t ever pretty, but it sure was entertaining. Between the name change, Rivera’s battle with cancer, Dwayne Haskins getting voted captain only to be benched and eventually stripped of his captaincy to being cut after hitting up the t***y bar after a loss in the midst of Corona, to the incredible comeback of Alex Smith. And that's really only half of it.

The WFT has many bright spots. The defensive front may be the most impactful in the NFL. It’s what you would expect with investing that many first round picks in the Trenches. OLB #91 Ryan Kerrigan was taken in the first round with the 16th pick in 2011. Kerrigan is the WFT’s all time leader in sacks. 2020 2nd overall pick Chase Young has shown his value in his rookie campaign opposite Kerrigan. Da’Rone Payne DT out of Alabama was selected by Washington in 2018 with the 13th overall selection. The Payne pick preceded fellow Alabama teammate Jonathan Allen who was picked by the then R words with the 10th selection in 2017. In 2019 The Football Team picked Montez Sweat with the 26th selection. Sweat is the roamer, the sub man who plays a bevy of roles on that defensive front.

The Football Team will heavily rely upon that ferocious front when taking on the Bucs Saturday.

Tampa Bay’s first trip to the playoffs since 2007 and the Jon Gruden era. The Buccaneers won the NFC south at 9-7 and lost to Super bowl Champion New York Giants in the Wild Card round.

Tom Brady came up short against that Giants Team as well.

The Buccaneers went all in on the Tom Brady sweepstakes and won. They continued to bolster the roster with names like Gronk, Brown, McCoy and Fournette all headed to Tampa to be a part of the Brady show. The offense already had big time playmakers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. On paper Tampa’s offense is ALL Madden good. Of course the real world isn’t EA Sports. The Bucs had a good year, but often relied upon their Defense to win games. My favorite defensive player in the league is linebacker Lavonte David.

Lavonte isn’t a household name, and it’s a god damn shame cause this guy is a fu***ng monster of a linebacker. David was picked in the 2012 NFL draft. He’s left his fingerprints all over every game he’s suited up. He has an NFL leading 128 tackles for loss. Just an insane amount of disruption. Look out for #54 on Saturday. He’ll be in the backfield if you’re not careful.

5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7 ATS) -8
@ 4 Washington Football Team (9-7 ATS) O/U 44.5

My Pick: I don’t see any great upset here, but Washington has played everyone really tough. The WFT has literally nothing to lose. I like them to keep it tight. WFT +8

01/09/2021

Wild Card Round For The Crown Of The NFC West.

01/08/20

This is the game I am looking forward to the most this weekend. I expect this to be a very entertaining game to watch.

The seed Los Angeles Rams are heading north to face their divisional rivals, the Seattle Seahawks to see who really is the king of the NFC West. Whoever wins advances and awaits their opponent in the next week in the divisional round.

Seattle will be mostly cloudy and a cool 46 degrees at kickoff. Game starts at 3:40pm CT on FOX.

Seattle and LA are 1-1 against each other during the COVID season. Seattle winning the last matchup 20-9

6 LA Rams (9-7 ATS) O/U 42
@ 3 Seattle Seahawks (8-8 ATS) -3
O/U 42

My Pick:
The Rams have the best defense in the NFL...period. They rank first in EVERY main passing stat, first in total yards allowed and average yards per game, third in total rushing yards allowed, and average yards per carry. In the two matchups they’ve had, they have 11 sacks and 2 INT on Russell Wilson. The Rams are second in the league in sacks with 53, Aaron Donald’s 13.5 is best in the NFC. The Seahawks are also a big sack threat, 7th in the league with 46 sacks.

Seattle's rush defense isn’t something to laugh about either, they are 4th in YPC and 5th in YPG. So like the Bills and Colts game, I expect a more passing game.

The big question to me is if Goff will be able to play. If the Rams decide that he is not eligible to play, I don’t see the Rams winning this game...HOWEVER, I still see the Rams covering. If Goff plays, the Rams will upset the Seahawks. But to play it safe, I'm just gonna take the spread on this one.

Rams +3

BOOK IT!!!

Photos from Spin Zone Sports's post 01/09/2021

The First Game To Kick Off The New NFL Playoff Format In The COVID Season.

1/8/21

Josh Allen and his AFC East champion Buffalo Bills are coming in hot this weekend to win their first playoff game in over 26 YEARS (1995). Against old man Rivers on his last leg for another attempt for a Super Bowl run with his new squad.

The 7th seed Colts are heading into Buffalo with the weather being cloudy and 34 degrees at kickoff time. Kickoff at 12:05pm CT on CBS.

7 Indianapolis Colts (8-8 ATS) O/U 51
@ 2 Buffalo Bills (11-5 ATS) -6.5
O/U 51

My Pick:
Buffalo has been on a tear as of late. In the words of Colin Cowherd, the Bills would’ve been “One hail mary away” from winning 10 of their last 11 games. But the Colts have been playing good football as well winning 4 of their last 6 games. The Bills passing attack is their strength and it will certainly come into fruition in this game. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are arguably the best QB and WR combo in the NFL, both in the MVP conversation. The Colts are 21st in YPA, 20th in YPG. and 12th in most passing TD’s allowed. Although, they are tied for 7th in INT with 15. The Bills are 3rd in passing YPG, 5th in completion percentage (68.8%) and 3rd in total passing touchdowns (40).

The Bills are 3rd in takeaways this season at 26, which will be useful since Phillip Rivers hasn’t posted a passer rating over 90% in his last two games, only posting 2 TD’s and 2 INT’s. The Bills are 13th in both total passing yards allowed and passing yards per game. I expect this game to be a gunslinger showdown.

Out with the old and (w)in with the new!! Bills -6.5

01/03/2021

The Green Bay Packers Have Something to Play For Yet In Week 17.

1/3/21

The Pack Look to pick up win number 101 in the series this afternoon as they take on the Chicago Bears at 3:25 PM on Fox.

As week 17 is upon us, let’s be thankful for what an incredible season it was. One that should go down in the books with a Rodgers MVP at the very least. Chicago doesn’t HAVE to win to get in but it would take a small miracle for them to slide in without picking up a victory today.

Green Bay Doesn’t HAVE to win to secure a number one seed in the playoffs, but that too would depend on the outcome of other teams. But why not go out and take care of business yourself.

Aaron Rodgers mentioned on, “Tuesdays with Aaron” on the Pat McAfee Show, that playing in Green Bay in December is about being not as miserable as the guy across from you is. And that has been true for a long time. Playing in Lambeau in below freezing weather is miserable, yet Rodgers, and dudes like Adams, make playing in blizzard-like conditions look easy.

Can’t use that advantage yet though as Green Bay travels to the Windy City to take on a desperate Bears team. Nagy has had a hell of a roller coaster season with this Bears team. Who knows, maybe it made them more unified squandering a 5-1 start for a mad scramble to the playoffs at 8-7.

Green Bay Packers 12-3 (9-6 ATS) -4
@ Chicago Bears 8-7 (8-7 ATS) O/U 50

My Pick:
I don’t have many thoughts on this game other than I hope the Packers just embarrass the f**k out of the Bears. A good 24-31 point ass kicking. Da Bears still Suck

01/03/2021

Week 17 Pick Em

1/3/20

Week 16 was an absolute nightmare 4-12. No one enjoys a 4-12 week. You don’t, I don’t. It’s no doubt turning around and we are going to turn it around today! 13-3 is happening now.

New York Jets 2-13 (6-9 ATS) O/U 39.5
@ New England Patriots 6-9 (6-9 ATS) -3
My Pick: Pats -3

Dallas Cowboys 6-9 (5-10 ATS) -1.5
@ New York Giants 5-10 (8-7 ATS) O/U 45
My Pick: Giants play spoiler and ruin McCarthy’s first season +1.5

Minnesota Vikings 6-9 (6-9 ATS) -4
@ Detroit Lions 5-10 (6-9 ATS) O/U 53.5
My Pick: under

Atlanta Falcons 4-11 (7-8 ATS) O/U 50.5
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-5 (8-7 ATS) -7
My Pick: Falcons cover the 7

Pittsburgh Steelers 12-3 (9-6 ATS) O/U 43.5
@ Cleveland Browns 10-5 (9-6 ATS) -9
My Pick: I’ve never picked the Browns laying more than seven so lets start a new trend Cleveland -9.

Baltimore Ravens 10-5 (9-6 ATS) -13.5
Bengals 4-10-1 (9-6 ATS) O/U 44
My Pick: Bengals +13.5

Miami Dolphins 10-5 (11-4 ATS) O/U 42
@ Buffalo Bills 12-3 (10-5 ATS) -1.5
My Pick: Buffalo -1.5

Jacksonville Jaguars 1-14 (6-9 ATS) O/U 49
@ Indianapolis Colts 10-5 (8-7 ATS) -14
My Pick: Jacksonville has the first pick in the 21 draft locked up. They fight hard and cover the 14 today

Green Bay Packers 12-3 (9-6 ATS) -4
@ Chicago Bears 8-7 (8-7 ATS) O/U 50
My Pick: Pack -4
New Orleans Saints 11-4 (8-7 ATS) -6
@ Carolina Panthers 5-10 (9-6 ATS) O/U 43.5
My Pick: under 43.5

Los Angeles Chargers 6-9 (8-7 ATS) -5
@ Kansas City Chiefs 14-1 (7-8 ATS) O/U 43.5
My Pick: Chiefs aren’t playing anybody but they are still well coached I like the Chiefs to cover

Tennessee Titans 10-5 (7-8 ATS) -7
@ Houston Texans 4-11 (5-10 ATS) O/U 55.5
My Pick: Tennessee -7

Las Vegas Raiders 7-8 (8-7 ATS) -2.5
@ Denver Broncos 5-10 (8-7 ATS) O/U 50
My Pick: Raiders -2.5

Seattle Seahawks 11-4 (8-7 ATS) -6.5
@ San Francisco 49ers 6-9 (6-9 ATS) O/U 46
My Pick: Seahawks have a weird crazy late cover I can feel it. Seattle -6.5

Arizona Cardinals 8-7 (7-8 ATS) -2.5
@ Los Angeles Rams 9-6 (8-7 ATS) O/U 42
My Pick: Rams +2.5

Washington Football Team 6-9 (9-6 ATS) -4
@ Philadelphia Eagles 4-10-1 (5-10 ATS) O/U 44
My Pick: WFT -4

Look The parlay is on its deathbed and I’m bottom barrel surfing for a W. Three Teams are 5-10 against the spread. I’m fading all three of them. Titans WFT and the Giants! Good Luck remember to bet with your HEAD not OVER it!

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