10/26/2026
🥷🏼 LICK OF THE DAY 🏀
NBA | Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
🎯 Jarrett Allen o2.5 1st Quarter Points (-156)
I know, I know—going with a basketball play when we have Monday Night Football!? Yes, I honestly don’t trust my Cowboys (even though they statistically have a great matchup tonight) and I can’t trust the Eagles with them missing most of their star players. So I am going with a NBA 1Q prop that actually has some fair value on Draft Kings! Not to mention, football did me so dirty yesterday, we just—we just, need some time away from each other right now… with that said! Here we go!👇
📊 THE STATISTICAL BREAKDOWN
Through Cleveland’s first two games of the 2026–27 season, Allen has recorded:
• 7.0 points per first quarter
• 8.9 minutes per first quarter
• 6 first-quarter points against Philadelphia
• 8 first-quarter points against Brooklyn
• 71.4% field-goal shooting in the early sample
⏱️ CONSISTENT MINUTES & ESTABLISHED ROLE
Allen has played 8.6 and 9.2 first-quarter minutes in his first two games, averaging 8.9 minutes.
That’s nearly 75% of the opening quarter, giving him a substantial window to generate scoring opportunities.
As Cleveland’s starting center, Allen benefits from an established offensive role built around pick-and-roll finishes, cuts, offensive rebounds, and high-percentage opportunities near the basket.
He doesn’t need to create difficult jump shots to score. His offensive responsibilities naturally place him in positions to finish possessions.
🔥 THE FINAL VERDICT
Jarrett Allen combines a really high current first-quarter scoring average, an established starting role with a healthy amount of mins, and he lives near the rim so he has a very high chance of maintaining his efficient interior scoring strategy
📊 Estimated hit probability: 69–73%
* (conditional on his normal starting role and minutes)
