02/09/2026
COME RAIN OR DROUGHT, WE'RE RAFTING!
El Nino promises heatwaves for SA
The past week has seen at least two devastating killer flash floods - one in Nepal that may have claimed up to 2000+ lives and a smaller one in the Grand Canyon that claimed the life of at least one man with 15 others still missing.
I know the Bright Angel Creek at Phantom Ranch at the bottom of the Grand Canyon. It's normally a beautiful but minor stream. This week it turned from Angel to Devil, destroying the campground and buildings. It's created a new rapid on the Colorado River, into which the violent flood poured boulders.
South Africa's Vaal River, where I live at Parys, regularly floods with destructive power. In 1996, 2020-11 and 2023 I've seen what the river can do after heavy rains across the Highveld. Peak seasons are January and April.
In January the tropical convergence through Angola brings something like a mooonsoon southwards. In April the cyclonic system over the Indian Ocean can dump huge volumes on the eastern Mpumalanga catchment of the Vaal.
This coming summer, however, we expect an extraordinary strong El Nino over the Pacific to dry up Southern Africa in a serious and possibly long lasting drought. But it's not certain that no rain will fall. In fact, some past El Ninos have produced spates of heavy rain.
All of this spells uncertainty for our river rafting business. Last weekend we had our first trip of the season on a boisterous Vaal that is flowing at normal summer level even after the dry winter. The Vaal Dam is 101% full after excellent rains in March-April this year, and water is being released.
With heavy rain forecast for the next few days we expect the level to rise - at least for a week or so. Then, it's anyone's guess. We are planning on a fairly good season, basef on 2017/8 records when there was an El Nino but sufficient rain over tributaries to maintain a great flow. Our videos of the time show that
Is this all caused by global warming, accentuating the natural cycle? It seems so. The Nepal flood may well be due to melting Himalayan ice causing rocks that were cemented together by freezing to collapse, releasing a mega mud tsunami into the gorges below.
Summer here is going to be hotter. That's why we plan to spend more time on and in the river. Where we are, it's not polluted except when local towns and industries do something naughty with their waste. Then we stop rafting till the river cleans itself. Regular ecoli and cyanobacteria counts show low stats below the Vaal Barrage where we are, many kilometres downstream.
Our rafting offerings this year include halfday and full day on the fantastic rapids around Parys; two and three day raft-camping trips staying overnight on secluded islands; and one and two days on the leisurely Dome Drift through the crater mountains, staying in B&B if two days.
The poet TS Eliot, who grew up in St Louis on the banks of the Mississippi, described the river as a "strong brown god" with unpredictable moods - as likely to aid commerce as to destroy property. Just so.
But I tend to agree with Laura Gilpin, whose photos of the Rio Grande captured the majesty of rivers.
“A river seems a magic thing. A magic, moving, living part of the very earth itself.”
* Come rafting close to Joburg. 084 245 2490 Https://riverman.co.za/
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