Sportpunter

TAB freaking out over Serong in and Bailey Smith out

POST 4 — 4-LEG SGM

Same Game Multis exposed, part 4.

Now the killer example.

4 AFL disposal legs.

Two players from one team.
Two players from the other team.

All priced:

Over: 1.85
Under: 1.88

That gives 16 possible outcomes.

Using multiplied single-leg prices, the full book came to 132.3%.

Sportsbet’s SGM prices came to 159.6%.

That is enormous.

[Attach 4-leg table]

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- shown how the AFL model has had a serious upgrade come end of season with full statistical analysis
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Adam Treloar climbs the leaderboard in the most disimproved players of 2026

The run home. Gold Coast Sunshave the toughest run, whilst Hawthorn Football Club have the easiest run. They both play each other on friday night.

POST 3 — 3-LEG SGM

Same Game Multis exposed, part 3.

Now we tested 3 AFL disposal legs.

Again, every player was priced:

Over: 1.85
Under: 1.88

Now there are 8 possible outcomes.

Using multiplied single-leg prices, the full book came to 123.3%.

Sportsbet’s SGM prices came to 133.3%.

That is an extra 10.0 percentage points of implied probability.

This is where the SGM haircut becomes much clearer.

2-LEG SGM

Same Game Multis exposed, part 2.

Start simple: 2 AFL disposal legs.

Both players were priced:

Over: 1.85
Under: 1.88

That gives 4 possible outcomes:

OO
OU
UO
UU

Using multiplied single-leg prices, the full 4-outcome book came to 115.0%.

Sportsbet’s SGM prices came to 117.6%.

That is only a small increase.

But the pattern starts here.

Mattaes Phillipou gets dropped from

. Reportedly on contract for $1m a year. His rating not really going anywhere

Compare his rating to the average player who has played at least 50 games

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Didnt quite get the win on the biggest value bet, but with still a 25% overlay on josh rachele, it was a great bet at odds of 12