Sportpunter

Mattaes Phillipou gets dropped from

. Reportedly on contract for $1m a year. His rating not really going anywhere

Compare his rating to the average player who has played at least 50 games

How good is our Sportpunter discord members community? From a bit of discussion, a few suggestions, I came up with a complete new and independent look-foward betting strategy. Here are the results: 450 bets across 4.5 years, 12.3% POT. Join here: www.sportpunter.com

Didnt quite get the win on the biggest value bet, but with still a 25% overlay on josh rachele, it was a great bet at odds of 12

Would you ever bet a market where both the over and under were priced at 1.45?

Of course not.

But that’s basically what Aussie bookmakers are serving up on AFL player props:
https://x.com/sportpunter/status/2059436292010905903

And Same Game Multis are even worse.

The more legs you add, the more margin they quietly strip out on top.

Our 5-part series exposes just how brutal the SGM haircut really is.

Part 1:
https://x.com/sportpunter/status/2064892995821076915

Same Game Multis exposed 🧵 Post 1 - Intro

We tested Sportsbet AFL disposal SGMs using players priced at:

Over: 1.85
Under: 1.88

These are already fat single-leg lines.

But when you multi them into Sportsbet’s SGM product, it appears to get worse.

Not just because you are multiplying bad prices.

But because the SGM book itself appears to get fatter.

In our examples:

2 legs: 115.0% became 117.6%
3 legs: 123.3% became 133.3%
4 legs: 132.3% became 159.6%

The 4-leg SGM book was 20.6% fatter than simply multiplying the already-margined single prices.

SGMs are convenient.

But the pricing can be brutal.

The Bont is still our number 1 ranked player, but Heeney is making a move. Ruckman Luke Jackson and Brodie Grundy have increased up the ladder significantly this year.

Our discord channel is up and running and subscribers are chatting, sharing info, and helping each other out.

Anyone can join here: https://discord.gg/G4Y7hpZX

subscribers just get the juicy members only channels. Here's an example of some of the stuff we have been discussing:

The Run Home
still have the toughest draw going home whilst have the easiest. League leaders Fremantle and Sydney are in the middle of the bunch.

results from the weekend.

NRL gained $374 with a handy win for Gold Coast @ 3.02. AFL has 2 h2h bets that both won for $368 profit, one on Western Bulldogs @ 2.86. Line bets were cooking, but lost a couple of later games - down $56

Full results here: www.sportpunter.com

Some bets are better than others. Here is sportsbet's list of their popular same game multi's and our calculated overlays