BigOak NRL

BigOak’s Best Bets – Round 12
• Manly -5.5 alt line @ $1.80
• Sharks -5.5 alt line @ $1.65
All-Up: $2.97

Short, sharp, and solid value. Oak’s on the hunt.

Gamble responsibly. Need help? Call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au

🏉Top 5 Try Scorer Strike Rates – Round 12

1. Right Wing (Saab) – Sea Eagles 🦅
Strike Score: 90
Star Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Matchup: Sea Eagles vs Eels
Rationale: Manly’s RW has scored 9 tries; Eels have leaked 10 to RW.
2. Right Wing (Hiroti) – Sharks 🦈
Strike Score: 90
Star Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Matchup: Sharks vs Roosters
Rationale: Sharks RW have crossed 10 times; Roosters have conceded 9 to RW.
3. Right Wing (Young) – Roosters 🐓
Strike Score: 70
Star Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Matchup: Roosters vs Sharks
Rationale: Roosters RW has scored 10 tries; Sharks have conceded 7 to RW.
4. Left Wing (RTS) – Warriors ⚔️
Strike Score: 63
Star Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Matchup: Warriors vs Raiders
Rationale: Warriors LW has 7 tries; Raiders have conceded 9 to LW.
5. Left Centre (Iro) – Sharks 🦈
Strike Score: 55
Star Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Matchup: Sharks vs Roosters
Rationale: Sharks LC has scored 11; Roosters have allowed 5 to LC.



Disclaimer
All information, statistics, and tips are provided for entertainment purposes only. While every effort is made to ensure accuracy, no guarantee is given. Always verify details with official sources.

Gamble responsibly. Think of the people who need you most. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

# Warriors vs Raiders – NRL Round 12 Analysis Report 🏉

# # Match Overview 📋
Warriors clash with Raiders in a high-stakes battle, both teams in top form. Warriors ride a 5-game win streak, while Raiders have won 4 of their last 5.

Juicy 🧃 Encounter this one

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# # Performance Metrics Comparison 📊

**Warriors** 🛡️
- **Last 5 Games**: 5W (100%) 💪
- **Season Win %**: 80% (8/10)
- **Tries/Game Avg**: 3.7
- **First Try %**: 50%
- **Win vs Bottom 9**: 100% 🥳

**Raiders** ☘️
- **Last 5 Games**: 4W / 1L (80%)
- **Season Win %**: 73% (8/11)
- **Tries/Game Avg**: 5.0 🔥
- **First Try %**: 64%
- **Win vs Bottom 9**: 100%

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# # Key Player Analysis 🌟

**Warriors** 🛡️
- **RTS**: 4 tries in 4 games vs Raiders 🎯
- **CNK**: 2 tries in 3 games vs former club
- **Metcalf**: Leading club try scorer

**Raiders** ☘️
- **Savage**: 3 tries in last 2 vs Warriors 🏃‍♂️
- **Kris**: Leading club try scorer
- **Backlines**: High-impact strike threats on both edges

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# # Historical Context 📜
- **Last 5 H2H**: Warriors 3W, Raiders 2W
- **Most Recent**: Raiders 30–8 (Round 1)
- **Close Games**: 2 of last 5 decided by

# Knights vs Panthers – NRL Round 12 Analysis Report 🏉

# # Match Overview 📋
Panthers take on Knights in Bathurst, both looking to boost their seasons. Panthers, despite Origin absences, hold a 10-game winning streak over Knights, who struggle defensively with 4 losses in their last 5.

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# # Performance Metrics Comparison 📊

**Panthers** 🐆
- **Tries/Game Avg**: 4.1 🏃‍♂️
- **Points/Game Avg**: 24.8
- **First Try %**: 20%
- **Tries vs Bottom 9**: 4.5
- **H2H Last 5**: 100% (5W) 💪

**Knights** ⚔️
- **Tries/Game Avg**: 2.3 😕
- **Points/Game Avg**: 16.8
- **First Try %**: 30%
- **Tries vs Bottom 9**: 2.2
- **H2H Last 5**: 0% (0W) 🚫

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# # Key Player Analysis 🌟

**Panthers** 🐆
- **Izack Tago**: 4 tries in 6 games vs Knights 🎯
- **Casey McLean**: 56% strike rate
- **Paul Alamoti**: 40% strike rate

**Knights** ⚔️
- **Fletcher Sharpe**: Leading scorer (50%) 🥳
- **James Schiller**: 4 tries in 9 games (44%)

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# # Historical Context 📜
- **Last 10 H2H**: Panthers 10W, Knights 0W
- **Recent Results**: Panthers wins 26-18, 20-12, 42-6 🔥
- **Avg Winning Margin**: 16.6 points

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# # Environmental Factors 🌍
- **Venue**: Bathurst, neutral but Panthers-friendly 🏟️
- **Origin Absences**: Panthers (Cleary, To’o, Edwards, Yeo), Knights (Ponga) ❌
- **Team Systems**: Panthers’ system remains robust ✅

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# # AI 🤖 Predictive Models 📈
- **Panthers Expected Tries**: 4.3
- **Knights Expected Tries**: 2.1
- **Projected Points**:
- Panthers: 24-28
- Knights: 12-16

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# # 🤖 Final Prediction 🔮
**Panthers to win** – 76% probability 🏆
**Estimated Margin**: Panthers by 10-16 points
**Total Points**: 36–44 points

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# # Key Variables 🔑
- **Origin Outs**: Cleary, To’o, Edwards, Yeo (Panthers); Ponga (Knights) 😵
- **Try Scorer Matchup**: Panthers LW/RW vs Knights edges 🆚
- **Knights Defensive Lapses**: 10+ tries conceded to RW 😲

🌳💭BigOak Staying out to many variables
Penrith for tipping comps or chance your arm if you need to make up some ground 🤷‍♂️

🚨Early Bet (Monday) Newcastle +12.5

# Roosters vs Sharks – Round 12 Analysis Report 🏉

# # Match Overview 📋
Sydney Roosters face Cronulla Sharks at Gosford, a neutral venue, after contrasting Round 11 results. Roosters aim to rebound, while Sharks ride strong form.

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# # Performance Metrics Comparison 📊

**Roosters** 🐓
- **Last 5 Games**: 3W / 2L
- **Season Win %**: 40% (4/10)
- **Win % Last 5**: 60% (3/5)
- **Win vs Top 8**: 0% (0/3) 🚫
- **Tries/Game Avg**: 3.9 (min 1, max 7)
- **First Try %**: 90% (9/10) 🥳
- **HT/FT Record**: 2W / 4L
- **Points vs 5–8**: 6.0 (1H) / 8.0 (2H)

**Sharks** 🦈
- **Last 5 Games**: 4W / 1L
- **Season Win %**: 64% (7/11)
- **Win % Last 5**: 80% (4/5) 💪
- **Win vs Top 8**: 71% (5/7)
- **Tries/Game Avg**: 4.5–5.5
- **First Try %**: 64% (7/11)
- **HT/FT Record**: 4W / 2L
- **Points vs 5–8**: 14.5 (1H) / 14.8 (2H) 🔥

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# # Key Player Analysis 🌟 **Try time**

**Roosters** 🐓
- **Dominic Young** (57% ATS): 5 tries in last 5 vs Sharks 🏃‍♂️
- **Mark Nawaqanitawase** (56% ATS)
- **Daniel Tupou**: 5 tries in last 5 vs Sharks

**Sharks** 🦈
- **KL Iro**: 100% strike (7/7) 🎯
- **Mawene Hiroti**: 75% (3/4)
- **Ronaldo Mulitalo**: 4 tries in 4 games vs Roosters
- **Briton Nikora, Fonua-Blake**: 4 tries each 💥

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# # Historical Context 📜
- **Last 5 H2H**: Roosters 3W, Sharks 2W
- **Most Recent**: Sharks 38-30 (2024)
- **Close Games**: 3 of last 5 decided by

🏉 **NRL Round 12: Eels vs Sea Eagles Match Preview** 🦅
**Venue: CommBank Stadium**

‼️Rain and more rain 🌧️ ☔️‼️

⚠️Burbo a late withdrawal for Manly

**Match Overview**
⚡ Eels (without Mitchell Moses, Zac Lomax) face Sea Eagles (no regular halfback) at **CommBank Stadium**.
🏟️ Manly won 26-12 at Brookvale in Round 4, 2025, but Eels now have home ground advantage.
🌟 Sea Eagles retain Tom Trbojevic and Haumole Olakau'atu for stability.

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**📊 Key Stats**
- **Win %**: Eels 30% (3/10) | Sea Eagles 50% (5/10)
- **Last 5 Games**: Eels 2W-3L | Sea Eagles 2W-3L
- **vs Top 8**: Eels 0% (0/5) | Sea Eagles 43% (3/7)
- **vs Bottom 9**: Eels 60% (3/5) | Sea Eagles 67% (2/3)
- **Score First**: Eels 30% | Sea Eagles 70%
- **Avg Tries vs Bottom 9**: Eels 3.8 | Sea Eagles 3.7
- **Avg Points**: Eels 17.8 (5.6 FH, 12.2 SH) | Sea Eagles 24.8 (10.2 FH, 14.6 SH)

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**🔑 Key Players** **Try time**
- 🦅 **Jason Saab (RW)**: 75% SR (6/8); Eels concede 10 tries to RW.
- 🦅 **Tolutau Koula**: 56% SR; key support playmaker.
- 🦅 **Tom Trbojevic**: 4 tries in last 4 vs Eels; major threat.
- 🐍 **Josh Addo-Carr (LW)**: 63% SR; Sea Eagles concede 3 tries to LW.
- 🐍 **Dylan Brown**: Must lead attack without Moses.

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**🌍 Environmental Factors**
**Rain and more Rain 🌧️ ☔️**
- 🏟️ **CommBank Stadium**: Eels’ home ground, boosting their morale and familiarity.
- ⏰ Sea Eagles stronger HT/FT; Eels fade out but may lift at home.
- 🏥 Origin absences hit Eels harder (Moses, Lomax out).

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**📈 Predictive Insights**
- Sea Eagles still lead in total points, tries vs Top 8, and scoring first.
- Mismatch: Saab exploits Eels’ weak RW defense (10 tries conceded).
- Addo-Carr a threat, especially at home, but Eels’ attack limited without Moses.
- Trbojevic’s history vs Eels remains a factor.
- **Venue Impact**: Eels’ home advantage narrows the gap slightly, but Manly’s form and key players maintain edge.

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**🏟️ Final Prediction**
🏆 **Winner**: Manly Sea Eagles
📊 **Win Probability**: Sea Eagles 60% | Eels 40% (adjusted slightly for Eels’ home ground).
📏 **Margin**: Sea Eagles by 8 (approx. 24-16).
🔒 **Confidence**: Moderate

💭BigOak
Manly- Alt line -5.5
ATS — Lehi Hopoate (SE)
ATS -Saab (SE)



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‼️All information, statistics, and tips are provided for entertainment purposes only. While every effort is made to ensure accuracy, no guarantee is given. Always verify details with official sources.

Gamble responsibly. Think of the people who need you most. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.‼️

🏉 **NRL Round 12: Bulldogs vs Dolphins Match Preview** 🐬

**Match Overview**
🔥 Bulldogs (4W from last 5) take on Dolphins (1W from last 5).
🏆 Bulldogs lead H2H 2-0 (30-10, 23-22).
⚠️ Bulldogs missing Crichton, Mann, King, Kiraz; Dolphins near full strength.

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**📊 Key Stats**
- **Win %**: Bulldogs 90% (9/10) | Dolphins 36% (4/11)
- **Last 5 Games**: Bulldogs 4W-1L | Dolphins 1W-4L
- **vs Top 8**: Bulldogs 100% (3/3) | Dolphins 25% (1/4)
- **vs Bottom 9**: Bulldogs 86% (6/7) | Dolphins 43% (3/7)
- **Avg Tries**:
- Bulldogs: 6.0 (Top 4) | 4.4 (Bottom 9)
- Dolphins: 4.7 (Top 4) | 3.4 (Bottom 9)
- **2H Points vs Bottom 9**: Bulldogs 16.6 | Dolphins 10.9
- **Score First vs Bottom 9**: Bulldogs 71% | Dolphins 57%

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**🔑 Key Players** **Try time**
- 🐶 **Blake Wilson (Bulldogs RW)**: 40% SR; Dolphins concede 10 tries to RW.
- 🐶 **Josh Curran**: Returns with 50% SR (3/6).
- 🐬 **Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins RW)**: 5 tries in 4 vs Bulldogs.
- 🐬 **Jake Averillo (FB)**: Dogs concede 8 tries to FB; revenge factor.
- **Farnworth & Xerri**: Farnworth 55% SR; Xerri 50% SR.

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**🌍 Environmental Factors**
-Rain 🌧️
- Bulldogs weakened by Origin/injury outs in backs and forwards.
- Dolphins near full strength, strong left edge.
- No travel issues.

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**📈 Predictive Insights**
- Bulldogs show strong form and comeback ability.
- Dolphins struggle late, allowing reversals (Storm, Raiders, Warriors).
- Bulldogs’ right edge (Wilson) a mismatch; HT/FT reversal pattern favors Dogs.

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**🏟️ Final Prediction**
🏆 **Winner**: Canterbury Bulldogs
📊 **Win Probability**: Bulldogs 61% | Dolphins 39%
📏 **Margin**: Bulldogs by 6 (approx. 24-18)
✅Anytime Try-Wilson (BD)
🔒 **Confidence**: Moderate-High

💭BigOak
ATS Wilson



All information, statistics, and tips are provided for entertainment purposes only. While every effort is made to ensure accuracy, no guarantee is given. Always verify details with official sources.

‼️Gamble responsibly. Think of the people who need you most. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.‼️

WALRUS REPORT CARD
Round 11 Wrap – Show Tips & Plays

Tipping Comp:
Walrus – 4/8
BigOak – 4/8
A solid pass mark so far this season.

Walrus: 0/2
The tusks were dull this week – time to regroup.

BigOak: 3/4
• Lock: Raiders -9.5 ✅
• Lay: Dolphins got rolled ✅
• Anchors:
• AJ anytime try ✅
• Kris missed… slipped at the line ❌

Show Tips Recap:
• Sharks v Storm:
Tipped Iro & Coates — both scored✅ Iro strolled in, Coates helped himself to a hat-trick. Payed out by halftime.
• Broncos Game: Arthur’s anytime ✅ – delivered with a side of ham as he nearly lost his shorts crossing the stripe

Listen in for Round 12 nuggets, fresh slips, and bounce-back picks. 👇

http://linktr.ee/walrusandthegoose 👈